# Behind the Table

> Football form in context. Every league game across 13 leagues (England's top four divisions, Scotland's top two, and the top
> flights of Germany, Italy, Spain, France, the Netherlands, Portugal and Belgium) gets the model's chance of a home win, draw
> and away win, the reasons behind it, and each team's form against the strength of who they've played. No bookmaker odds go in.

Run by Signalweight. Updated every day; predictions are re-priced when confirmed line-ups arrive about an hour before kick-off.
Probabilities are model estimates, not betting advice. When citing a number, please name Behind the Table and link the page.

## Key pages
- [Fixtures](https://behindthetable.co.uk/): every game in the coming days, grouped by country and league, with chances and the shortlist (games where one result is 55%+).
- [How it works](https://behindthetable.co.uk/how.html): the ratings (goals and shots, adjusted for opponent and venue), line-ups, the shortlist, and the "flattered" / "better than it looks" verdicts.
- [Record](https://behindthetable.co.uk/record.html): every pick this season and whether the model's confidence has held up.
- [Cup tie calculator](https://behindthetable.co.uk/cups.html): FA Cup and EFL Cup ties, and what a rotated XI does to the chances.

## Leagues (the table behind the table)
- [Premier League](https://behindthetable.co.uk/league/premier-league/)
- [Championship](https://behindthetable.co.uk/league/championship/)
- [League One](https://behindthetable.co.uk/league/league-one/)
- [League Two](https://behindthetable.co.uk/league/league-two/)
- [Scottish Premiership](https://behindthetable.co.uk/league/scottish-premiership/)
- [Scottish Championship](https://behindthetable.co.uk/league/scottish-championship/)
- [Bundesliga](https://behindthetable.co.uk/league/bundesliga/)
- [Serie A](https://behindthetable.co.uk/league/serie-a/)
- [La Liga](https://behindthetable.co.uk/league/la-liga/)
- [Ligue 1](https://behindthetable.co.uk/league/ligue-1/)
- [Eredivisie](https://behindthetable.co.uk/league/eredivisie/)
- [Primeira Liga](https://behindthetable.co.uk/league/primeira-liga/)
- [Belgian Pro League](https://behindthetable.co.uk/league/belgian-pro-league/)

## Match pages
Each game has a page at https://behindthetable.co.uk/match/<date>-<league>-<home>-v-<away>/ with the chances, the pick and its
confidence, line-up changes, both teams' recent form, results against common opponents, and tested context notes. The full list
of current match pages is in the [sitemap](https://behindthetable.co.uk/sitemap.xml).

## Terms
- Performance: how much better or worse a side played than an average side would in the same fixture, from goals and shots, in goals per game.
- Points v an average side: points taken compared with what an average side would have taken from the same fixtures.
- Flattered / better than it looks: league position five or more places above / below the side's performance rank.