13 leagues · every game priced · no bookmaker odds
FA Cup · EFL Cup · ratings as of 2026-11-10
Cup tie calculator
Pick any two English league clubs and how strong a side each puts out. Cup line-ups move the odds more than most people expect: the typical side in these ties plays at well under its usual league strength.
Coming ties
FA Cup and EFL Cup ties in the next three weeks. Tap one to load it below. Before line-ups each side is set to its typical cup XI; about an hour before kick-off the real XIs replace them.
XI strength100%
XI strength100%
Venue
After 90 minutes
Choose two clubs to see the chances.
How this works
Strength comes from the model's current ratings, with all four divisions on one scale. XI strength is the share of a club's usual league strength in the starting 11: each starter counts for the share of the club's league minutes he has played recently, so 100% is the usual league side and 0% is nobody who has been playing. "Typical cup XI" is the club's median in FA Cup and EFL Cup ties since 2016 (or the all-club median where a club has fewer than four ties).
Fitted on 928 FA Cup and EFL Cup ties between league clubs, 2016-26. Tested on 2022-26 ties it hadn't seen, knowing the XIs clearly improved the predictions. The XI effect is an average across clubs: a top side's reserves are better than most, so for the strongest clubs the drop is probably a little overstated. "To go through" splits extra time and penalties by the two sides' 90-minute chances, a rough guide only. Neutral venue averages the two home/away versions.
FA Cup · EFL Cup
Cup tie calculator
Pick any two English league clubs and how strong a side each puts out. Cup line-ups move the odds more than most people expect: the typical side in these ties plays at well under its usual league strength.
Coming ties
FA Cup and EFL Cup ties in the next three weeks. Tap one to load it below. Before line-ups each side is set to its typical cup XI; about an hour before kick-off the real XIs replace them.
Venue
After 90 minutes
How this works
Strength comes from the model's current ratings, with all four divisions on one scale. XI strength is the share of a club's usual league strength in the starting 11: each starter counts for the share of the club's league minutes he has played recently, so 100% is the usual league side and 0% is nobody who has been playing. "Typical cup XI" is the club's median in FA Cup and EFL Cup ties since 2016 (or the all-club median where a club has fewer than four ties).
Fitted on 928 FA Cup and EFL Cup ties between league clubs, 2016-26. Tested on 2022-26 ties it hadn't seen, knowing the XIs clearly improved the predictions. The XI effect is an average across clubs: a top side's reserves are better than most, so for the strongest clubs the drop is probably a little overstated. "To go through" splits extra time and penalties by the two sides' 90-minute chances, a rough guide only. Neutral venue averages the two home/away versions.