2026-27 · results to Sun 8 Nov
Eredivisie: form in context
The table says where teams are. This page says how they got there: who they beat, who beat them, and whether the performances back it up.
The table, and the table behind it
Performance rank orders teams by how well they have played, adjusted for who they played and where. Five or more places from their real position earns a verdict. Points v average side: points won minus what an average team would have taken from the same fixtures.
| Pos | Team | P | Pts | GD | Performance rank | Verdict | Pts v average side | Home ppg | Away ppg | Last 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 26 | +25 | 4 ▼3 | As it looks | +9.2 | 2.33 | 2.00 | LWLDWW |
| 2 | Feyenoord | 12 | 25 | +19 | 2 = | As it looks | +8.2 | 1.80 | 2.29 | WWWDDL |
| 3 | Ajax | 12 | 25 | +17 | 5 ▼2 | As it looks | +9.4 | 1.50 | 2.67 | DDWWWD |
| 4 | Twente | 12 | 24 | +18 | 1 ▲3 | As it looks | +7.0 | 2.17 | 1.83 | WDLWWD |
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 23 | +8 | 3 ▲2 | As it looks | +6.3 | 2.17 | 1.67 | WLDLLW |
| 6 | Heerenveen | 12 | 21 | +8 | 6 = | As it looks | +4.8 | 1.86 | 1.60 | WLWWWW |
| 7 | For Sittard | 12 | 20 | 0 | 16 ▼9 | Flattered | +3.9 | 1.33 | 2.00 | WDDWDD |
| 8 | Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 17 | -3 | 9 ▼1 | As it looks | −1.3 | 2.20 | 0.86 | DDLWLW |
| 9 | Groningen | 12 | 15 | +1 | 11 ▼2 | As it looks | −0.9 | 1.17 | 1.33 | WWLDLL |
| 10 | Cambuur | 12 | 15 | -2 | 10 = | As it looks | −1.7 | 1.00 | 1.60 | DWDWWL |
| 11 | Nijmegen | 12 | 14 | -1 | 8 ▲3 | As it looks | −3.0 | 0.67 | 1.67 | DDDDLW |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 12 | -8 | 7 ▲5 | Better than it looks | −3.7 | 0.83 | 1.17 | LDWLWL |
| 13 | Zwolle | 12 | 12 | -11 | 15 ▼2 | As it looks | −4.9 | 1.00 | 1.00 | LLWDWD |
| 14 | Utrecht | 12 | 12 | -13 | 12 ▲2 | As it looks | −3.7 | 0.83 | 1.17 | LWWDLL |
| 15 | Excelsior | 12 | 11 | -13 | 17 ▼2 | As it looks | −4.8 | 0.50 | 1.33 | DLLLLL |
| 16 | Telstar | 12 | 10 | -7 | 14 ▲2 | As it looks | −6.2 | 0.83 | 0.83 | LDLLWD |
| 17 | Den Haag | 12 | 9 | -9 | 13 ▲4 | As it looks | −6.7 | 1.17 | 0.33 | DDWLLW |
| 18 | Willem II | 12 | 3 | -29 | 18 = | As it looks | −13.1 | 0.33 | 0.17 | LLLLLD |
How the season could finish
10,000 simulations of the rest of the season from the current ratings, allowing for the ratings themselves being wrong. Run-in: what an average side would expect per game from the fixtures left, against those already played (higher = easier). Regular season only.
| Team | Pts now | Left | Projected pts | Likely range | Avg finish | Champions | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 26 | 22 | 74 | 66–81 | 1.8 | 54% | 97% | 0% | Similar (+0.02) |
| Ajax | 25 | 22 | 69 | 61–76 | 2.9 | 17% | 87% | 0% | Easier (+0.13) |
| Feyenoord | 25 | 22 | 68 | 60–75 | 3.0 | 15% | 85% | 0% | Similar (+0.01) |
| Twente | 24 | 22 | 68 | 60–75 | 3.1 | 14% | 85% | 0% | Similar (+0.01) |
| AZ Alkmaar | 23 | 22 | 59 | 51–67 | 5.4 | 1% | 24% | 0% | Similar (+0.01) |
| Heerenveen | 21 | 22 | 58 | 50–66 | 5.6 | <1% | 19% | <1% | Similar (+0.04) |
| For Sittard | 20 | 22 | 49 | 41–57 | 8.2 | <1% | 1% | <1% | Easier (+0.06) |
| Groningen | 15 | 22 | 47 | 39–54 | 8.9 | 0% | 1% | 1% | Easier (+0.07) |
| Nijmegen | 14 | 22 | 45 | 38–53 | 9.4 | 0% | <1% | 1% | Harder (−0.08) |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 17 | 22 | 43 | 35–50 | 10.4 | 0% | <1% | 2% | Harder (−0.23) |
| Utrecht | 12 | 22 | 41 | 33–49 | 11.5 | 0% | <1% | 7% | Easier (+0.08) |
| Telstar | 10 | 22 | 39 | 31–47 | 12.1 | 0% | <1% | 10% | Easier (+0.07) |
| Cambuur | 15 | 22 | 38 | 30–45 | 12.5 | 0% | 0% | 11% | Harder (−0.07) |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 22 | 36 | 28–43 | 13.4 | 0% | 0% | 20% | Similar (+0.03) |
| Zwolle | 12 | 22 | 33 | 25–40 | 14.6 | 0% | 0% | 41% | Harder (−0.07) |
| Excelsior | 11 | 22 | 33 | 25–40 | 14.7 | 0% | 0% | 43% | Similar (+0.05) |
| Den Haag | 9 | 22 | 29 | 22–37 | 15.7 | 0% | 0% | 65% | Easier (+0.07) |
| Willem II | 3 | 22 | 16 | 10–23 | 17.9 | 0% | 0% | >99% | Similar (−0.03) |
Results against the table
Each row is a team; columns are their opponents in league order, 1st on the left. The number under each score is our performance measure for that game: how much better (+) or worse (−) than an average side in the same fixture.
How their games go
From goal times this season: share of minutes spent ahead, level and behind, and what happens after the first goal. Small samples early in a season; descriptive only, the model doesn't use it.
| Team | Games | Ahead | Level | Behind | Ppg after scoring first (n) | Ppg after conceding first (n) | Leads won | Points from behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 60% | 35% | 4% | 2.29 (7) | 2.00 (5) | 8 of 12 | 10 from 6 |
| Feyenoord | 11 | 51% | 38% | 11% | 2.22 (9) | 1.00 (2) | 6 of 9 | 2 from 3 |
| Ajax | 12 | 52% | 42% | 6% | 2.27 (11) | 0.00 (1) | 7 of 11 | 1 from 2 |
| Twente | 12 | 27% | 50% | 24% | 2.38 (8) | 1.25 (4) | 7 of 9 | 9 from 7 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 32% | 45% | 23% | 2.71 (7) | 1.00 (4) | 7 of 8 | 7 from 5 |
| Heerenveen | 12 | 30% | 49% | 21% | 3.00 (5) | 0.83 (6) | 6 of 8 | 5 from 6 |
| For Sittard | 12 | 32% | 57% | 11% | 2.11 (9) | 0.33 (3) | 5 of 9 | 2 from 4 |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 12 | 27% | 42% | 31% | 2.00 (5) | 1.00 (7) | 4 of 7 | 7 from 8 |
| Groningen | 12 | 45% | 36% | 19% | 1.56 (9) | 0.33 (3) | 4 of 10 | 1 from 6 |
| Cambuur | 12 | 34% | 30% | 36% | 2.14 (7) | 0.00 (5) | 4 of 7 | 0 from 5 |
| Nijmegen | 12 | 21% | 46% | 33% | 2.20 (5) | 0.43 (7) | 3 of 5 | 4 from 8 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 17% | 43% | 40% | 1.33 (3) | 0.89 (9) | 3 of 6 | 9 from 11 |
| Zwolle | 12 | 14% | 56% | 29% | 1.50 (6) | 0.50 (6) | 3 of 7 | 4 from 8 |
| Utrecht | 12 | 15% | 39% | 47% | 1.75 (4) | 0.63 (8) | 3 of 5 | 5 from 9 |
| Excelsior | 12 | 18% | 42% | 39% | 3.00 (3) | 0.22 (9) | 3 of 5 | 2 from 9 |
| Telstar | 12 | 16% | 39% | 45% | 2.33 (3) | 0.25 (8) | 2 of 3 | 3 from 9 |
| Den Haag | 12 | 12% | 48% | 39% | 2.00 (2) | 0.50 (10) | 2 of 4 | 5 from 10 |
| Willem II | 12 | 4% | 51% | 45% | 0.33 (3) | 0.22 (9) | 0 of 3 | 3 from 12 |
| League average (all teams) | 214 | 28% | 44% | 28% | 2.11 (106) | 0.61 (106) | 77 of 128 | 79 from 128 |
Points v an average side
| Team | Position | Points | Average side would have | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajax | 3 | 25 | 15.6 | +9.4 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 26 | 16.8 | +9.2 |
| Feyenoord | 2 | 25 | 16.8 | +8.2 |
| Twente | 4 | 24 | 17.0 | +7.0 |
| AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 23 | 16.7 | +6.3 |
| Heerenveen | 6 | 21 | 16.2 | +4.8 |
| For Sittard | 7 | 20 | 16.1 | +3.9 |
| Groningen | 9 | 15 | 15.9 | −0.9 |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 8 | 17 | 18.3 | −1.3 |
| Cambuur | 10 | 15 | 16.7 | −1.7 |
| Nijmegen | 11 | 14 | 17.0 | −3.0 |
| Utrecht | 14 | 12 | 15.7 | −3.7 |
| Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 12 | 15.7 | −3.7 |
| Excelsior | 15 | 11 | 15.8 | −4.8 |
| Zwolle | 13 | 12 | 16.9 | −4.9 |
| Telstar | 16 | 10 | 16.2 | −6.2 |
| Den Haag | 17 | 9 | 15.7 | −6.7 |
| Willem II | 18 | 3 | 16.1 | −13.1 |
Fixtures
Every remaining league game. Chances are today's view from the current ratings: games more than a week away will move as results come in. Full previews open about a week before.
November 2026 · 18 games
Saturday 21 November
Sunday 22 November
Friday 27 November
Saturday 28 November
Sunday 29 November
December 2026 · 27 games
Friday 4 December
Saturday 5 December
Sunday 6 December
Saturday 12 December
Sunday 13 December
Friday 18 December
Saturday 19 December
Sunday 20 December
January 2027 · 36 games
Friday 8 January
Saturday 9 January
Sunday 10 January
Friday 15 January
Saturday 16 January
Sunday 17 January
Friday 22 January
Saturday 23 January
Sunday 24 January
Friday 29 January
Saturday 30 January
Sunday 31 January
February 2027 · 27 games
Sunday 14 February
Sunday 21 February
Sunday 28 February
March 2027 · 27 games
Sunday 7 March
Sunday 14 March
Sunday 21 March
April 2027 · 27 games
Sunday 4 April
Sunday 11 April
Sunday 25 April
May 2027 · 36 games
Sunday 2 May
Sunday 9 May
Sunday 16 May
Sunday 23 May