13 leagues · every game priced · no bookmaker odds
2026-27 · results to Wed 4 Nov
League One: form in context
The table says where teams are. This page says how they got there: who they beat, who beat them, and whether the performances back it up.
The table, and the table behind it
Performance rank orders teams by how well they have played, adjusted for who they played and where. Five or more places from their real position earns a verdict. Points v average side: points won minus what an average team would have taken from the same fixtures.
Pos
Team
P
Pts
GD
Performance rank
Verdict
Pts v average side
Home ppg
Away ppg
Last 6
1
Huddersfield
14
29
+16
1=
As it looks
+9.1
2.14
2.00
DWWWWD
2
Stockport
14
26
+12
2=
As it looks
+6.3
2.14
1.57
WWWDLW
3
Oxford
13
26
+11
13▼10
Flattered
+8.6
2.14
1.83
DWDWDW
4
Luton
14
24
+6
4=
As it looks
+5.4
2.00
1.43
LWWWWD
5
Plymouth
14
23
+2
10▼5
Flattered
+4.5
1.43
1.86
WWLLWD
6
Reading
14
22
+10
3▲3
As it looks
+2.8
2.29
0.86
WLWWDL
7
Bradford
13
22
+2
8▼1
As it looks
+5.0
1.67
1.71
DDWDDL
8
Cambridge
14
21
0
17▼9
Flattered
+1.4
1.57
1.43
WWDLDL
9
Sheffield Weds
13
20
+8
12▼3
As it looks
+1.1
1.43
1.67
DWLLDD
10
Leicester
13
19
+3
5▲5
Better than it looks
+0.5
1.43
1.50
LWWLWD
11
Mansfield
13
19
+2
6▲5
Better than it looks
+0.1
1.83
1.14
WDWWLD
12
Milton Keynes Dons
13
18
+2
7▲5
Better than it looks
−0.3
1.71
1.00
LWLWWW
13
Wycombe
13
18
-2
11▲2
As it looks
−0.7
1.29
1.50
DLWDDW
14
Leyton Orient
13
17
+5
16▼2
As it looks
−1.1
1.29
1.33
LDWLLW
15
Burton
14
17
-3
19▼4
As it looks
−1.5
1.43
1.00
LLDDWL
16
Stevenage
12
16
+4
14▲2
As it looks
−0.3
1.67
1.00
LWLWLD
17
Notts County
12
14
-1
15▲2
As it looks
−0.4
1.33
1.00
LLLWDW
18
AFC Wimbledon
13
13
-12
23▼5
Flattered
−4.7
1.50
0.57
DLLLDL
19
Blackpool
12
12
-4
21▼2
As it looks
−4.6
1.33
0.67
LLLWLD
20
Doncaster
13
12
-8
22▼2
As it looks
−5.5
1.33
0.57
WLLWLL
21
Wigan
14
11
-11
20▲1
As it looks
−7.7
1.43
0.14
WLLLWD
22
Peterboro
13
10
-12
9▲13
Better than it looks
−7.3
0.83
0.71
LWDLDL
23
Barnsley
12
9
-10
18▲5
Better than it looks
−6.3
0.83
0.67
DLLLLD
24
Bromley
13
9
-20
24=
As it looks
−9.5
0.83
0.57
LLLDLL
How the season could finish
10,000 simulations of the rest of the season from the current ratings, allowing for the ratings themselves being wrong. Run-in: what an average side would expect per game from the fixtures left, against those already played (higher = easier). Regular season only.
Team
Pts now
Left
Projected pts
Likely range
Avg finish
Champions
Top 2
Top 6
Bottom 4
Run-in
Huddersfield
29
32
86
75–96
2.9
35%
58%
92%
0%
Harder (−0.05)
Oxford
26
33
85
74–95
3.3
27%
49%
89%
0%
Easier (+0.08)
Stockport
26
32
81
70–91
4.4
14%
30%
79%
0%
Similar (−0.04)
Luton
24
32
79
68–89
5.2
9%
21%
71%
<1%
Easier (+0.09)
Leicester
19
33
76
66–87
6.2
5%
14%
59%
<1%
Harder (−0.05)
Plymouth
23
32
75
64–85
7.0
3%
10%
49%
<1%
Easier (+0.08)
Bradford
22
33
73
62–84
7.7
2%
7%
42%
<1%
Easier (+0.11)
Reading
22
32
69
59–80
9.2
1%
3%
28%
<1%
Similar (+0.01)
Wycombe
18
33
68
57–79
10.4
1%
2%
19%
1%
Harder (−0.08)
Stevenage
16
34
67
56–78
10.5
<1%
2%
19%
1%
Similar (+0.02)
Mansfield
19
33
67
56–77
10.8
<1%
1%
16%
1%
Harder (−0.10)
Cambridge
21
32
65
55–75
11.6
<1%
1%
11%
1%
Similar (−0.04)
Sheffield Weds
20
33
62
52–73
12.8
<1%
1%
8%
3%
Harder (−0.13)
Milton Keynes Dons
18
33
60
50–71
13.8
<1%
<1%
5%
4%
Harder (−0.06)
Leyton Orient
17
33
60
49–70
14.1
<1%
<1%
4%
5%
Similar (−0.04)
Notts County
14
34
60
49–71
14.1
<1%
<1%
4%
6%
Easier (+0.22)
Burton
17
32
58
47–68
15.3
0%
<1%
2%
8%
Easier (+0.06)
Blackpool
12
34
51
41–62
18.2
0%
<1%
<1%
29%
Similar (−0.03)
Barnsley
9
34
50
40–61
18.6
0%
<1%
<1%
34%
Easier (+0.11)
Doncaster
12
33
50
39–60
18.9
0%
0%
<1%
35%
Similar (+0.02)
Wigan
11
32
46
36–57
20.1
0%
0%
<1%
52%
Similar (+0.05)
Peterboro
10
33
47
36–57
20.1
0%
0%
<1%
53%
Similar (+0.04)
AFC Wimbledon
13
33
42
33–52
21.5
0%
0%
<1%
74%
Similar (−0.01)
Bromley
9
33
35
26–44
23.2
0%
0%
0%
94%
Harder (−0.09)
Results against the table
Each row is a team; columns are their opponents in league order, 1st on the left. The number under each score is our performance measure for that game: how much better (+) or worse (−) than an average side in the same fixture.
WinDrawDefeatH home · A away · blank: not played yet
1
HUD
2
STO
3
OXF
4
LUT
5
PLY
6
REA
7
BRA
8
CAM
9
SHE
10
LEI
11
MAN
12
MIL
13
WYC
14
LEY
15
BUR
16
STE
17
NOT
18
AFC
19
BLA
20
DON
21
WIG
22
PET
23
BAR
24
BRO
1. Huddersfield
3-1 H
+2.6
1-1 H
+0.4
2-0 A
+2.9
3-0 A
+1.2
2-1 A
+0.1
2-2 H
−0.3
0-0 A
+0.9
1-1 A
+1.3
3-1 A
+2.9
1-1 H
−0.2
3-0 H
−0.0
2-1 H
+2.1
4-1 H
+0.8
1-2 A
+1.9
2. Stockport
0-1 A
+0.9
0-2 A
−0.0
3-1 A
+1.1
0-0 A
+0.6
3-4 H
+1.2
5-1 H
+0.5
1-1 A
+2.3
2-1 H
+1.1
1-2 H
+1.0
2-0 A
+3.3
4-0 A
+1.4
1-0 H
−0.3
3-1 H
+0.1
1-0 H
+0.3
3. Oxford
1-3 A
−2.1
1-0 H
−0.2
2-0 H
−1.1
0-0 H
+0.2
1-1 H
−0.4
4-0 A
+2.0
1-1 A
−2.8
2-2 H
−1.0
3-0 H
+0.5
2-1 A
+0.5
2-1 A
+0.6
2-1 H
+1.0
1-1 A
+1.9
4. Luton
1-1 A
+0.4
2-0 H
+0.8
4-3 A
+0.0
0-1 H
+0.5
2-1 H
+0.8
2-5 A
+0.3
1-2 A
−0.0
4-1 A
+1.1
1-1 H
+1.3
1-2 A
−0.2
2-2 H
+0.7
3-1 H
+0.9
2-0 A
+0.4
2-1 H
+0.9
5. Plymouth
0-2 H
−2.1
1-3 H
−0.3
0-0 H
−0.4
2-0 H
+0.2
3-2 A
+0.4
0-2 A
+0.0
1-1 A
−0.6
2-0 A
+0.8
0-1 H
+1.2
0-3 A
−0.0
2-1 H
+0.1
4-2 A
+1.9
3-2 A
+0.4
3-0 H
−0.7
6. Reading
0-2 A
+1.6
3-4 H
+0.2
0-0 A
+0.9
1-1 H
−0.2
1-2 A
+0.9
5-0 H
+1.2
5-1 A
+2.9
2-2 A
−0.3
1-0 H
−1.7
2-0 H
+1.7
0-0 A
+0.3
3-1 H
+2.7
0-1 A
+0.7
2-1 H
−0.2
7. Bradford
0-3 H
−0.7
0-0 A
+0.3
1-0 A
−0.0
0-2 A
+0.3
1-1 A
+0.5
1-2 H
+1.5
1-0 A
−0.8
1-0 H
+0.4
0-0 H
+0.5
0-0 A
+0.2
2-0 H
+0.7
1-0 A
+0.1
2-0 H
−0.2
8. Cambridge
1-2 H
+0.1
1-1 A
+0.7
2-3 H
−0.1
2-1 H
−0.9
2-1 A
−1.4
1-1 A
+0.2
2-2 H
−0.6
0-3 A
−0.0
2-2 A
−1.3
1-1 H
−0.2
1-0 H
+0.8
3-2 H
−1.1
2-1 A
−0.0
1-1 A
+0.0
9. Sheffield Weds
2-2 A
+0.6
0-0 H
−0.2
0-1 H
+0.6
1-1 H
−0.2
2-1 A
+2.0
2-1 A
+1.3
0-2 A
−2.1
5-0 H
+1.6
1-1 H
−1.0
0-2 A
−0.1
0-0 H
−1.3
2-1 A
−1.4
7-2 H
+2.4
10. Leicester
4-3 A
−0.2
0-4 H
−1.3
1-2 A
−0.0
2-0 H
+0.7
0-0 A
+1.0
1-2 H
+0.0
2-2 H
+0.8
1-1 A
−1.5
2-1 H
+0.9
3-0 H
+1.4
1-3 H
+0.3
1-1 A
+1.3
4-0 A
+1.7
11. Mansfield
0-0 H
−0.6
1-1 H
+3.1
5-2 H
+0.0
0-5 A
−1.1
0-1 A
−0.2
2-2 A
+0.8
0-2 H
+0.2
3-0 A
+1.2
4-1 A
+0.8
2-1 H
−0.3
0-0 A
−0.5
1-2 A
−0.1
2-1 H
+0.5
12. Milton Keynes Dons
1-1 H
−1.3
2-2 A
+1.1
2-1 H
−0.1
1-5 H
−3.0
0-0 H
−0.8
3-3 A
+1.2
1-0 A
+1.8
0-0 A
−0.5
0-2 A
+0.2
6-1 H
+2.9
1-3 A
+0.4
1-1 H
−0.8
4-1 H
+0.6
13. Wycombe
1-5 A
+0.2
1-4 H
−0.7
1-1 H
+1.2
2-2 H
+0.6
2-2 A
+0.8
1-2 H
−1.9
3-3 H
−1.2
3-2 A
+0.1
2-0 H
+0.1
2-0 H
+0.3
1-1 A
−0.4
1-1 A
−0.3
1-0 A
+1.2
14. Leyton Orient
1-1 A
−1.1
0-2 H
−0.6
0-1 A
+1.8
0-0 A
−0.6
3-0 H
−0.1
1-2 H
−1.8
2-3 H
−0.1
1-2 A
−0.3
1-0 H
−1.2
2-0 H
+1.0
2-0 A
−0.4
1-3 H
−1.6
5-0 A
+0.8
15. Burton
1-3 H
−2.8
0-3 A
−0.3
1-0 A
−0.8
0-0 H
−0.1
2-2 H
+1.2
2-1 A
+0.3
2-2 H
−0.9
0-2 A
−0.0
2-1 H
+0.1
1-1 H
+0.2
1-2 A
−2.1
4-1 H
−1.1
0-1 A
+0.5
2-2 A
−1.7
16. Stevenage
1-2 H
−0.2
2-1 H
+0.4
3-0 H
+0.4
0-2 A
−0.5
2-2 A
−0.3
0-1 H
−1.9
0-1 A
+1.2
1-1 A
−0.3
2-2 H
−0.5
1-0 H
+1.5
0-0 A
−0.5
5-1 A
+0.3
17. Notts County
1-1 A
+0.4
1-1 H
−2.0
1-2 H
−0.5
2-2 A
−0.6
0-2 A
−1.7
0-1 H
−0.1
2-0 H
+1.9
1-1 H
+1.8
2-0 A
−0.2
0-2 A
−0.3
2-1 H
+1.9
1-1 A
−0.1
18. AFC Wimbledon
0-3 A
−0.2
1-2 A
−1.2
1-2 A
−0.0
0-0 H
−0.9
1-1 A
−0.2
0-5 A
−2.1
0-3 H
−1.7
0-0 H
−0.2
1-1 H
−0.1
1-4 A
+0.6
1-0 H
−1.4
1-0 H
−2.7
2-0 A
+0.1
19. Blackpool
2-1 A
−0.6
2-4 H
−1.6
1-3 A
−2.7
0-1 A
−0.9
1-1 A
+0.7
1-4 H
−0.9
2-0 H
−0.7
1-1 H
+0.5
0-2 A
−1.4
4-0 H
+0.5
1-2 A
+0.5
2-2 H
−1.0
20. Doncaster
0-2 H
−3.0
1-3 A
−0.6
2-3 H
−0.2
2-0 H
−0.0
1-2 A
−0.6
1-2 A
+0.3
1-6 A
−3.3
1-0 H
−0.7
2-2 A
+0.4
1-1 H
−0.1
0-1 A
+0.8
2-0 A
−0.3
0-0 H
+0.5
21. Wigan
1-2 A
−1.9
0-4 H
−1.3
1-2 A
−0.9
1-0 H
−0.9
2-3 A
+1.0
0-0 A
+1.0
0-3 A
−1.2
0-0 H
+0.2
3-1 H
−0.9
0-1 H
−1.3
0-2 H
+0.0
0-1 A
−1.6
0-1 A
+2.1
3-2 H
−0.4
22. Peterboro
1-4 A
−0.8
0-1 A
+0.4
0-2 H
−0.4
0-2 A
−0.1
1-2 H
+0.9
3-1 A
−0.3
2-1 H
+0.0
1-1 A
+0.2
2-2 H
+1.3
0-0 H
+0.2
0-4 A
−0.9
0-2 H
−0.2
1-1 A
+0.1
23. Barnsley
1-3 A
+0.2
1-1 H
−1.7
1-2 A
−0.7
0-3 A
+1.0
1-2 A
+0.2
1-2 H
−0.1
1-1 H
−1.0
3-1 A
+1.3
1-5 H
−0.3
2-1 H
−0.6
0-0 A
−0.8
0-1 H
−0.5
24. Bromley
2-1 H
−2.3
0-1 A
−0.6
1-1 H
−0.4
2-7 A
−3.1
0-4 H
−2.0
1-2 A
−1.2
1-4 A
−1.5
0-5 H
−1.5
0-2 H
−1.2
2-2 A
+0.2
2-3 A
−0.7
1-1 H
−1.1
1-0 A
−0.1
How their games go
From goal times this season: share of minutes spent ahead, level and behind, and what happens after the first goal. Small samples early in a season; descriptive only, the model doesn't use it.
Team
Games
Ahead
Level
Behind
Ppg after scoring first (n)
Ppg after conceding first (n)
Leads won
Points from behind
Huddersfield
14
47%
48%
5%
2.40 (10)
1.33 (3)
8 of 11
4 from 3
Stockport
14
33%
38%
29%
3.00 (6)
1.00 (7)
8 of 8
7 from 7
Oxford
13
34%
56%
10%
2.40 (10)
0.50 (2)
7 of 10
2 from 3
Luton
14
33%
43%
25%
2.40 (10)
0.00 (4)
7 of 10
4 from 6
Plymouth
14
28%
48%
25%
2.67 (6)
0.86 (7)
7 of 8
6 from 7
Reading
14
27%
59%
14%
2.29 (7)
0.80 (5)
6 of 9
4 from 6
Bradford
13
30%
57%
13%
2.71 (7)
0.00 (3)
6 of 7
0 from 3
Cambridge
14
15%
60%
26%
2.00 (5)
1.22 (9)
5 of 8
11 from 10
Sheffield Weds
13
26%
55%
20%
2.33 (6)
0.80 (5)
5 of 7
4 from 5
Leicester
13
36%
38%
25%
2.25 (8)
0.00 (4)
5 of 8
0 from 4
Mansfield
13
25%
50%
26%
3.00 (5)
0.33 (6)
5 of 5
2 from 6
Milton Keynes Dons
13
27%
54%
19%
2.60 (5)
0.50 (6)
4 of 7
3 from 6
Wycombe
13
32%
42%
27%
1.88 (8)
0.60 (5)
4 of 8
4 from 7
Leyton Orient
13
24%
54%
23%
2.50 (6)
0.17 (6)
5 of 6
1 from 7
Burton
14
25%
53%
22%
1.50 (6)
1.00 (7)
4 of 9
8 from 9
Stevenage
12
20%
68%
12%
2.50 (4)
0.71 (7)
4 of 5
6 from 8
Notts County
12
18%
53%
29%
2.33 (3)
0.78 (9)
3 of 5
7 from 9
AFC Wimbledon
13
22%
54%
24%
1.38 (8)
0.00 (3)
3 of 8
0 from 6
Blackpool
12
17%
48%
35%
2.00 (5)
0.29 (7)
3 of 5
2 from 8
Doncaster
13
20%
50%
30%
2.50 (4)
0.13 (8)
3 of 5
1 from 8
Wigan
14
10%
52%
38%
3.00 (2)
0.30 (10)
3 of 3
3 from 10
Peterboro
13
10%
43%
47%
2.33 (3)
0.22 (9)
2 of 3
3 from 10
Barnsley
12
22%
47%
30%
1.00 (7)
0.25 (4)
2 of 7
1 from 8
Bromley
13
14%
39%
47%
1.75 (4)
0.22 (9)
2 of 4
2 from 10
League average (all teams)
316
25%
50%
25%
2.24 (145)
0.52 (145)
111 of 166
85 from 166
Points v an average side
Team
Position
Points
Average side would have
Difference
Huddersfield
1
29
19.9
+9.1
Oxford
3
26
17.4
+8.6
Stockport
2
26
19.7
+6.3
Luton
4
24
18.6
+5.4
Bradford
7
22
17.0
+5.0
Plymouth
5
23
18.5
+4.5
Reading
6
22
19.2
+2.8
Cambridge
8
21
19.6
+1.4
Sheffield Weds
9
20
18.9
+1.1
Leicester
10
19
18.5
+0.5
Mansfield
11
19
18.9
+0.1
Milton Keynes Dons
12
18
18.3
−0.3
Stevenage
16
16
16.3
−0.3
Notts County
17
14
14.4
−0.4
Wycombe
13
18
18.7
−0.7
Leyton Orient
14
17
18.1
−1.1
Burton
15
17
18.5
−1.5
Blackpool
19
12
16.6
−4.6
AFC Wimbledon
18
13
17.7
−4.7
Doncaster
20
12
17.5
−5.5
Barnsley
23
9
15.3
−6.3
Peterboro
22
10
17.3
−7.3
Wigan
21
11
18.7
−7.7
Bromley
24
9
18.5
−9.5
Fixtures
Every remaining league game. Chances are today's view from the current ratings: games more than a week away will move as results come in. Full previews open about a week before.
The table says where teams are. This page says how they got there: who they beat, who beat them, and whether the performances back it up.
The table, and the table behind it
Performance rank orders teams by how well they have played, adjusted for who they played and where. Five or more places from their real position earns a verdict. Points v average side: points won minus what an average team would have taken from the same fixtures.
How the season could finish
Results against the table
Each row is a team; columns are their opponents in league order, 1st on the left. The number under each score is our performance measure for that game: how much better (+) or worse (−) than an average side in the same fixture.
WinDrawDefeatH home · A away · blank: not played yet
How their games go
From goal times this season: share of minutes spent ahead, level and behind, and what happens after the first goal. Small samples early in a season; descriptive only, the model doesn't use it.
Points v an average side
Fixtures
Every remaining league game. Chances are today's view from the current ratings: games more than a week away will move as results come in. Full previews open about a week before.