2026-27 · results to Sun 8 Nov
Scottish Premiership: form in context
The table says where teams are. This page says how they got there: who they beat, who beat them, and whether the performances back it up.
The table, and the table behind it
Performance rank orders teams by how well they have played, adjusted for who they played and where. Five or more places from their real position earns a verdict. Points v average side: points won minus what an average team would have taken from the same fixtures.
| Pos | Team | P | Pts | GD | Performance rank | Verdict | Pts v average side | Home ppg | Away ppg | Last 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Celtic | 13 | 31 | +18 | 1 = | As it looks | +11.9 | 2.29 | 2.50 | WWWDLW |
| 2 | Rangers | 12 | 27 | +12 | 2 = | As it looks | +10.1 | 2.40 | 2.14 | WWDWDW |
| 3 | Falkirk | 13 | 21 | +6 | 7 ▼4 | As it looks | +4.9 | 1.50 | 1.71 | LWWWWW |
| 4 | Hearts | 12 | 20 | +4 | 6 ▼2 | As it looks | +3.0 | 2.17 | 1.17 | DWLWDL |
| 5 | Dundee | 12 | 17 | +3 | 9 ▼4 | As it looks | +0.5 | 1.83 | 1.00 | WWDLWL |
| 6 | Dundee United | 12 | 17 | 0 | 4 ▲2 | As it looks | +0.9 | 1.50 | 1.33 | WWDWDD |
| 7 | St Johnstone | 13 | 17 | -3 | 11 ▼4 | As it looks | −1.1 | 1.71 | 0.83 | WDLDDW |
| 8 | St Mirren | 13 | 14 | -10 | 12 ▼4 | As it looks | −2.9 | 1.14 | 1.00 | LLWDLL |
| 9 | Motherwell | 13 | 13 | -6 | 5 ▲4 | As it looks | −5.3 | 1.17 | 0.86 | LLLDWD |
| 10 | Hibernian | 12 | 11 | -2 | 3 ▲7 | Better than it looks | −5.7 | 0.17 | 1.67 | DLLLDW |
| 11 | Aberdeen | 12 | 11 | -6 | 10 ▲1 | As it looks | −5.4 | 1.00 | 0.80 | DLWLLL |
| 12 | Kilmarnock | 13 | 9 | -16 | 8 ▲4 | As it looks | −7.9 | 0.83 | 0.57 | LWLLDL |
How the season could finish
10,000 simulations of the rest of the season from the current ratings, allowing for the ratings themselves being wrong. Run-in: what an average side would expect per game from the fixtures left, against those already played (higher = easier). Regular season only.
| Team | Pts now | Left | Projected pts | Likely range | Avg finish | Champions | Top 3 | Bottom 2 | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 31 | 20 | 73 | 65–80 | 1.4 | 64% | >99% | 0% | Harder (−0.06) |
| Rangers | 27 | 21 | 70 | 63–78 | 1.7 | 35% | 99% | 0% | Similar (+0.01) |
| Hearts | 20 | 21 | 57 | 49–65 | 3.3 | 1% | 74% | 0% | Similar (−0.03) |
| Falkirk | 21 | 20 | 49 | 41–57 | 4.7 | <1% | 18% | <1% | Easier (+0.18) |
| Dundee United | 17 | 21 | 44 | 36–52 | 6.1 | <1% | 4% | 2% | Similar (+0.01) |
| Dundee | 17 | 21 | 40 | 33–48 | 7.3 | <1% | 1% | 7% | Similar (−0.04) |
| Motherwell | 13 | 20 | 41 | 33–48 | 7.4 | 0% | 1% | 8% | Harder (−0.06) |
| Hibernian | 11 | 21 | 40 | 32–48 | 7.5 | 0% | 1% | 9% | Similar (−0.03) |
| St Johnstone | 17 | 20 | 38 | 31–46 | 8.2 | 0% | 1% | 14% | Harder (−0.09) |
| St Mirren | 14 | 20 | 35 | 28–43 | 9.2 | 0% | <1% | 30% | Easier (+0.06) |
| Aberdeen | 11 | 21 | 31 | 24–39 | 10.4 | 0% | <1% | 59% | Similar (−0.05) |
| Kilmarnock | 9 | 20 | 30 | 22–37 | 10.8 | 0% | 0% | 70% | Similar (+0.05) |
Results against the table
Each row is a team; columns are their opponents in league order, 1st on the left. The number under each score is our performance measure for that game: how much better (+) or worse (−) than an average side in the same fixture.
WinDrawDefeatH home · A away · blank: not played yet
1
CEL
2
RAN
3
FAL
4
HEA
5
DUN
6
DUN
7
ST
8
ST
9
MOT
10
HIB
11
ABE
12
KIL
1. Celtic
0-1 H
−0.1
2-1 H
+1.8
0-2 A
+1.8
7-1 H
+3.3
1-0 H
+1.3
2-2 H
+0.8
1-0 A
+1.5
2-1 A
+1.2
2-0 A
+2.2
2-1 A
+0.2
3-0 H
+1.1
5-1 A
+4.7
1-0 H
−0.0
2. Rangers
1-0 A
+1.8
2-1 A
+0.7
2-2 A
+1.4
2-2 A
−0.0
1-1 A
−0.5
4-0 H
+3.5
1-0 H
+0.7
2-0 A
+2.1
1-0 H
+3.5
1-2 H
+0.2
1-0 A
+1.2
3-1 H
−0.5
3. Falkirk
1-2 A
−1.2
2-0 H
−1.0
1-2 H
−0.2
2-1 H
+0.6
5-2 A
+1.6
1-2 H
−0.0
1-1 A
−1.5
1-1 A
+0.2
0-2 H
−1.4
0-0 A
+0.1
2-1 A
−0.3
1-0 A
−0.7
3-0 H
−0.5
4. Hearts
1-7 A
−1.7
2-2 H
+0.0
1-2 A
−0.4
2-5 H
−1.1
2-1 H
+0.7
4-0 H
+1.0
2-1 H
+0.1
5-0 H
+2.3
2-0 A
+0.1
3-1 A
−0.5
1-2 A
−1.0
1-1 A
+1.3
5. Dundee
0-1 A
−0.9
2-2 H
+0.5
2-1 A
−0.6
1-2 A
−0.5
2-0 A
+0.3
1-1 H
+0.4
1-2 A
−1.1
1-2 A
−0.1
2-1 H
+0.2
1-2 H
−1.7
2-0 H
+0.9
3-1 H
−0.6
6. Dundee United
2-2 A
+0.3
1-1 H
+0.5
1-1 H
+0.9
0-4 A
−0.8
0-2 H
−1.1
1-1 A
−0.2
3-0 A
+0.7
0-3 A
−1.5
1-1 H
−0.0
1-0 H
+0.7
3-2 H
−0.6
4-0 A
+2.3
7. St Johnstone
0-1 H
−0.8
0-4 A
−2.8
1-1 H
−0.7
1-2 A
+0.3
1-1 A
−1.0
2-1 H
+0.4
1-1 H
−0.2
0-1 A
−0.2
2-2 H
−0.3
2-1 H
+0.7
1-0 A
−0.2
4-3 H
+0.4
2-2 A
−2.8
8. St Mirren
1-2 H
−0.6
0-1 A
+0.1
0-2 H
−1.7
2-0 A
+0.9
0-5 A
−1.9
2-1 H
−0.6
0-3 H
−1.2
1-0 H
−0.2
3-3 H
+0.3
0-1 A
−1.8
1-1 H
+0.1
1-3 A
−1.4
1-0 A
+0.4
9. Motherwell
0-2 H
−1.2
0-1 A
−2.2
0-0 H
−0.1
0-2 H
+0.4
1-2 A
−0.4
3-0 H
+1.4
1-1 A
−0.0
2-2 A
−0.0
3-3 A
−0.2
1-0 H
+1.6
2-1 A
+0.5
0-4 H
−0.9
2-3 A
+0.8
10. Hibernian
1-2 H
+0.8
2-1 A
+0.9
1-2 H
+0.1
1-3 H
+1.1
2-1 A
+1.5
0-1 A
−0.9
1-2 A
−0.8
1-1 A
−0.5
1-2 H
+0.0
1-1 H
+0.0
4-0 A
+1.3
0-1 H
−1.5
11. Aberdeen
0-3 A
−0.6
0-1 H
−0.9
0-1 H
+0.2
2-1 H
+1.0
0-2 A
−1.7
2-3 A
+0.1
0-1 H
−0.3
3-1 H
+0.8
4-0 A
+0.7
1-1 A
−0.3
0-4 H
−1.7
0-0 H
−1.0
12. Kilmarnock
1-5 H
−4.3
0-1 A
+0.6
1-3 A
+0.9
0-3 A
−0.2
1-1 H
−1.3
1-3 A
−0.2
0-4 H
−3.1
3-4 A
−1.0
2-2 H
+2.0
0-1 H
−1.1
3-2 H
−1.1
1-0 A
+1.0
0-0 A
−0.1
How their games go
From goal times this season: share of minutes spent ahead, level and behind, and what happens after the first goal. Small samples early in a season; descriptive only, the model doesn't use it.
| Team | Games | Ahead | Level | Behind | Ppg after scoring first (n) | Ppg after conceding first (n) | Leads won | Points from behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 13 | 54% | 28% | 18% | 2.78 (9) | 1.50 (4) | 10 of 11 | 7 from 5 |
| Rangers | 12 | 42% | 46% | 12% | 2.78 (9) | 0.67 (3) | 8 of 10 | 3 from 4 |
| Falkirk | 13 | 43% | 39% | 18% | 2.22 (9) | 0.00 (3) | 6 of 9 | 0 from 4 |
| Hearts | 12 | 43% | 23% | 35% | 2.50 (6) | 0.83 (6) | 6 of 8 | 5 from 7 |
| Dundee | 12 | 30% | 46% | 24% | 2.00 (7) | 0.60 (5) | 5 of 8 | 4 from 7 |
| Dundee United | 12 | 30% | 34% | 36% | 2.60 (5) | 0.57 (7) | 4 of 6 | 4 from 7 |
| St Johnstone | 13 | 26% | 46% | 28% | 2.33 (6) | 0.43 (7) | 4 of 6 | 7 from 9 |
| St Mirren | 13 | 28% | 40% | 32% | 2.40 (5) | 0.25 (8) | 4 of 6 | 2 from 9 |
| Motherwell | 13 | 18% | 45% | 37% | 2.20 (5) | 0.14 (7) | 3 of 7 | 2 from 8 |
| Hibernian | 12 | 17% | 43% | 40% | 2.00 (5) | 0.14 (7) | 3 of 5 | 1 from 8 |
| Aberdeen | 12 | 16% | 46% | 39% | 2.33 (3) | 0.38 (8) | 3 of 4 | 3 from 8 |
| Kilmarnock | 13 | 19% | 35% | 46% | 2.00 (4) | 0.00 (8) | 2 of 5 | 3 from 9 |
| League average (all teams) | 150 | 30% | 39% | 30% | 2.38 (73) | 0.41 (73) | 58 of 85 | 41 from 85 |
Points v an average side
| Team | Position | Points | Average side would have | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Celtic | 1 | 31 | 19.1 | +11.9 |
| Rangers | 2 | 27 | 16.9 | +10.1 |
| Falkirk | 3 | 21 | 16.1 | +4.9 |
| Hearts | 4 | 20 | 17.0 | +3.0 |
| Dundee United | 6 | 17 | 16.1 | +0.9 |
| Dundee | 5 | 17 | 16.5 | +0.5 |
| St Johnstone | 7 | 17 | 18.1 | −1.1 |
| St Mirren | 8 | 14 | 16.9 | −2.9 |
| Motherwell | 9 | 13 | 18.3 | −5.3 |
| Aberdeen | 11 | 11 | 16.4 | −5.4 |
| Hibernian | 10 | 11 | 16.7 | −5.7 |
| Kilmarnock | 12 | 9 | 16.9 | −7.9 |
Fixtures
Every remaining league game. Chances are today's view from the current ratings: games more than a week away will move as results come in. Full previews open about a week before.
November 2026 · 14 games
Saturday 21 November
15:00
Celtic (1) v St Mirren (8)Celtic win 78%
15:00
Falkirk (3) v St Johnstone (7)Falkirk win 51%
15:00
Hibernian (10) v Dundee United (6)Hibernian win 45%
15:00
Kilmarnock (12) v Aberdeen (11)Kilmarnock win 45%
17:45
Dundee (5) v Hearts (4)Hearts win 50%
20:00
Motherwell (9) v Rangers (2)Rangers win 53%
Tuesday 24 November
19:45
Hibernian (10) v Dundee (5)Hibernian win 52%
20:00
Rangers (2) v Aberdeen (11)Rangers win 80%
Saturday 28 November
15:00
Aberdeen (11) v Dundee (5)Aberdeen win 37%
15:00
Dundee United (6) v St Johnstone (7)Dundee United win 49%
15:00
Rangers (2) v Falkirk (3)Rangers win 69%
15:00
St Mirren (8) v Kilmarnock (12)St Mirren win 43%
17:45
Motherwell (9) v Hibernian (10)Motherwell win 42%
Sunday 29 November
15:00
Hearts (4) v Celtic (1)Celtic win 40%
December 2026 · 36 games
Wednesday 2 December
19:45
Dundee (5) v Celtic (1)Celtic win 64%
19:45
Falkirk (3) v Motherwell (9)Falkirk win 39%
19:45
Hearts (4) v Aberdeen (11)Hearts win 73%
19:45
Kilmarnock (12) v Hibernian (10)Hibernian win 43%
19:45
Rangers (2) v Dundee United (6)Rangers win 70%
19:45
St Johnstone (7) v St Mirren (8)St Johnstone win 43%
Saturday 5 December
15:00
Aberdeen (11) v Dundee United (6)Dundee United win 41%
15:00
Celtic (1) v St Johnstone (7)Celtic win 77%
15:00
Dundee (5) v Falkirk (3)Falkirk win 38%
15:00
Motherwell (9) v Kilmarnock (12)Motherwell win 56%
17:30
St Mirren (8) v Hearts (4)Hearts win 54%
Monday 7 December
20:00
Hibernian (10) v Rangers (2)Rangers win 53%
Saturday 12 December
15:00
Dundee United (6) v St Mirren (8)Dundee United win 51%
15:00
Falkirk (3) v Aberdeen (11)Falkirk win 57%
15:00
Kilmarnock (12) v Dundee (5)Kilmarnock win 39%
Sunday 13 December
12:00
St Johnstone (7) v Rangers (2)Rangers win 64%
15:00
Celtic (1) v Hibernian (10)Celtic win 68%
15:00
Hearts (4) v Motherwell (9)Hearts win 56%
Saturday 19 December
15:00
Dundee United (6) v Kilmarnock (12)Dundee United win 52%
15:00
Hibernian (10) v St Johnstone (7)Hibernian win 53%
15:00
Motherwell (9) v Dundee (5)Motherwell win 52%
15:00
St Mirren (8) v Falkirk (3)Falkirk win 41%
Sunday 20 December
12:00
Aberdeen (11) v Celtic (1)Celtic win 69%
14:30
Rangers (2) v Hearts (4)Rangers win 57%
Saturday 26 December
15:00
Celtic (1) v Motherwell (9)Celtic win 68%
15:00
Dundee (5) v St Mirren (8)Dundee win 45%
15:00
Falkirk (3) v Dundee United (6)Falkirk win 44%
15:00
St Johnstone (7) v Aberdeen (11)St Johnstone win 47%
17:45
Kilmarnock (12) v Rangers (2)Rangers win 66%
Sunday 27 December
12:00
Hearts (4) v Hibernian (10)Hearts win 57%
Wednesday 30 December
19:45
Aberdeen (11) v Motherwell (9)Motherwell win 45%
19:45
Dundee United (6) v Celtic (1)Celtic win 59%
19:45
Hibernian (10) v St Mirren (8)Hibernian win 54%
19:45
Kilmarnock (12) v Falkirk (3)Falkirk win 41%
19:45
Rangers (2) v Dundee (5)Rangers win 76%
19:45
St Johnstone (7) v Hearts (4)Hearts win 52%
January 2027 · 24 games
Saturday 2 January
12:30
Dundee (5) v Dundee United (6)Dundee win 36%
15:00
Falkirk (3) v Hibernian (10)Falkirk win 40%
15:00
Hearts (4) v Kilmarnock (12)Hearts win 70%
15:00
Motherwell (9) v St Johnstone (7)Motherwell win 52%
Sunday 3 January
12:00
Rangers (2) v Celtic (1)Rangers win 42%
14:30
St Mirren (8) v Aberdeen (11)St Mirren win 45%
Saturday 9 January
15:00
Aberdeen (11) v Hearts (4)Hearts win 55%
15:00
Celtic (1) v Dundee (5)Celtic win 76%
15:00
Dundee United (6) v Rangers (2)Rangers win 57%
15:00
Hibernian (10) v Motherwell (9)Hibernian win 41%
15:00
Kilmarnock (12) v St Mirren (8)Kilmarnock win 41%
15:00
St Johnstone (7) v Falkirk (3)Falkirk win 40%
Saturday 23 January
15:00
Dundee (5) v Aberdeen (11)Dundee win 49%
15:00
Falkirk (3) v Hearts (4)Hearts win 42%
15:00
Hibernian (10) v Kilmarnock (12)Hibernian win 56%
15:00
Motherwell (9) v Dundee United (6)Motherwell win 45%
15:00
Rangers (2) v St Johnstone (7)Rangers win 76%
Sunday 24 January
15:00
St Mirren (8) v Celtic (1)Celtic win 68%
Saturday 30 January
15:00
Aberdeen (11) v Rangers (2)Rangers win 67%
15:00
Dundee (5) v Hibernian (10)Hibernian win 39%
15:00
Hearts (4) v St Mirren (8)Hearts win 69%
15:00
Kilmarnock (12) v Motherwell (9)Motherwell win 44%
15:00
St Johnstone (7) v Dundee United (6)Dundee United win 38%
Sunday 31 January
15:00
Celtic (1) v Falkirk (3)Celtic win 69%
February 2027 · 24 games
Wednesday 3 February
19:45
Aberdeen (11) v Falkirk (3)Falkirk win 43%
19:45
Dundee United (6) v Hibernian (10)Dundee United win 38%
19:45
Hearts (4) v Dundee (5)Hearts win 67%
19:45
Motherwell (9) v Celtic (1)Celtic win 55%
19:45
Rangers (2) v Kilmarnock (12)Rangers win 78%
19:45
St Mirren (8) v St Johnstone (7)St Mirren win 39%
Saturday 13 February
15:00
Celtic (1) v Hearts (4)Celtic win 58%
15:00
Dundee (5) v St Johnstone (7)Dundee win 43%
15:00
Falkirk (3) v Rangers (2)Rangers win 55%
15:00
Hibernian (10) v Aberdeen (11)Hibernian win 58%
15:00
Kilmarnock (12) v Dundee United (6)Dundee United win 39%
15:00
St Mirren (8) v Motherwell (9)Motherwell win 44%
Saturday 20 February
15:00
Dundee United (6) v Aberdeen (11)Dundee United win 55%
15:00
Falkirk (3) v Dundee (5)Falkirk win 50%
15:00
Hibernian (10) v Celtic (1)Celtic win 55%
15:00
Motherwell (9) v Hearts (4)Hearts win 41%
15:00
Rangers (2) v St Mirren (8)Rangers win 77%
15:00
St Johnstone (7) v Kilmarnock (12)St Johnstone win 44%
Saturday 27 February
15:00
Aberdeen (11) v St Johnstone (7)Aberdeen win 38%
15:00
Celtic (1) v Rangers (2)Celtic win 45%
15:00
Dundee (5) v Kilmarnock (12)Dundee win 46%
15:00
Hearts (4) v Dundee United (6)Hearts win 61%
15:00
Motherwell (9) v Falkirk (3)Motherwell win 43%
15:00
St Mirren (8) v Hibernian (10)Hibernian win 43%
March 2027 · 12 games
Saturday 13 March
15:00
Aberdeen (11) v St Mirren (8)Aberdeen win 39%
15:00
Dundee United (6) v Dundee (5)Dundee United win 48%
15:00
Hibernian (10) v Falkirk (3)Hibernian win 43%
15:00
Kilmarnock (12) v Hearts (4)Hearts win 54%
15:00
Rangers (2) v Motherwell (9)Rangers win 67%
15:00
St Johnstone (7) v Celtic (1)Celtic win 66%
Saturday 20 March
15:00
Celtic (1) v Aberdeen (11)Celtic win 81%
15:00
Dundee (5) v Motherwell (9)Motherwell win 40%
15:00
Falkirk (3) v Kilmarnock (12)Falkirk win 54%
15:00
Hearts (4) v Rangers (2)Rangers win 38%
15:00
St Johnstone (7) v Hibernian (10)Hibernian win 41%
15:00
St Mirren (8) v Dundee United (6)Dundee United win 39%
April 2027 · 12 games
Saturday 3 April
15:00
Dundee United (6) v Falkirk (3)Dundee United win 40%
15:00
Hearts (4) v St Johnstone (7)Hearts win 67%
15:00
Kilmarnock (12) v Celtic (1)Celtic win 68%
15:00
Motherwell (9) v Aberdeen (11)Motherwell win 58%
15:00
Rangers (2) v Hibernian (10)Rangers win 67%
15:00
St Mirren (8) v Dundee (5)St Mirren win 39%
Saturday 10 April
15:00
Aberdeen (11) v Kilmarnock (12)Aberdeen win 41%
15:00
Celtic (1) v Dundee United (6)Celtic win 71%
15:00
Dundee (5) v Rangers (2)Rangers win 62%
15:00
Falkirk (3) v St Mirren (8)Falkirk win 53%
15:00
Hibernian (10) v Hearts (4)Hearts win 41%
15:00
St Johnstone (7) v Motherwell (9)Motherwell win 42%