Behind the TableFootball form in context

13 leagues · every game priced · no bookmaker odds

Fixtures · every game the model prices

Saturday 14 November

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England

League One Table behind the table

18AFC Wimbledon Flattered

Blackpool win 40%

Notts County win 49%

14Leyton Orient

Leyton Orient win 37%

10Leicester Better than it looks

Leicester win 51%

8Cambridge Flattered

Luton win 55%

12Milton Keynes Dons Better than it looks

Milton Keynes Dons win 44%

22Peterboro Better than it looks

3Oxford Flattered

Oxford win 53%

9Sheffield Weds

5Plymouth Flattered

Plymouth win 38%

11Mansfield Better than it looks

Stevenage win 44%

Stockport win 51%

23Barnsley Better than it looks

Wigan win 37%

Huddersfield win 39%

League Two Table behind the table

5Cheltenham Flattered

Exeter win 58%

17Bristol Rvs Better than it looks

10Chesterfield Better than it looks

Chesterfield win 39%

22Colchester Better than it looks

8Gillingham Flattered

Colchester win 49%

4Crewe Flattered

14Newport County

Crewe win 44%

19Port Vale Better than it looks

Port Vale win 46%

York win 41%

24Crawley Town Better than it looks

Rotherham win 44%

1Salford Flattered

Salford win 56%

15Shrewsbury Better than it looks

18Oldham Better than it looks

Oldham win 36%

13Swindon Flattered

6Grimsby Better than it looks

Grimsby win 46%

3Walsall Flattered

Barnet win 39%

16Fleetwood Town Better than it looks

Fleetwood Town win 50%

Scotland

Scottish Championship Table behind the table

Raith Rvs win 45%

Livingston win 63%

Partick win 50%

Stenhousemuir win 52%

Recent results

How the model's pick fared. Judge it over weeks, not days.

Last 8 games: 5 picks right.

Sp Braga win 62%

Benfica win 77%

Barcelona win 43%

6Marseille Flattered

Lens win 47%

15Fiorentina Better than it looks

Juventus win 56%

14Nijmegen Better than it looks

Utrecht win 37%

14Hoffenheim Better than it looks

Hoffenheim win 65%

16St Truiden Better than it looks

St Truiden win 49%

Shortlist record

65%

of shortlisted picks right this season (268 of 410), against 65% the model said they would be. Recreated from ratings built only on earlier games.

Tables that lie

Five or more places between where a team sits and how well it has actually played.

Chelsea · Premier LeagueFlattered

Bournemouth · Premier LeagueBetter than it looks

Birmingham · ChampionshipFlattered

West Ham · ChampionshipBetter than it looks

Oxford · League OneFlattered

Leicester · League OneBetter than it looks

Salford · League TwoFlattered

Grimsby · League TwoBetter than it looks

Cup tie calculator

What a rotated XI does to the chances in an FA Cup or EFL Cup tie.

How to read this

The bar is the model's chance of each result. Shortlist means 55% or more on one outcome. Flattered teams have more points than their performances deserve; better-than-it-looks teams have fewer. Tap the star to add a game to your own shortlist.

How the model works