2026-27 · results to Sat 7 Nov
Scottish Championship: form in context
The table says where teams are. This page says how they got there: who they beat, who beat them, and whether the performances back it up.
The table, and the table behind it
Performance rank orders teams by how well they have played, adjusted for who they played and where. Five or more places from their real position earns a verdict. Points v average side: points won minus what an average team would have taken from the same fixtures.
| Pos | Team | P | Pts | GD | Performance rank | Verdict | Pts v average side | Home ppg | Away ppg | Last 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Partick | 14 | 28 | +11 | 3 ▼2 | As it looks | +8.3 | 2.00 | 2.00 | WWDWLW |
| 2 | Raith Rvs | 14 | 25 | +11 | 2 = | As it looks | +5.4 | 1.57 | 2.00 | WWDLWD |
| 3 | Dunfermline | 14 | 25 | +8 | 1 ▲2 | As it looks | +6.5 | 2.00 | 1.63 | DDWWWD |
| 4 | Stenhousemuir | 14 | 23 | 0 | 7 ▼3 | As it looks | +4.6 | 1.86 | 1.43 | LDLLLL |
| 5 | Livingston | 14 | 21 | +7 | 4 ▲1 | As it looks | +1.9 | 1.43 | 1.57 | LLDWWD |
| 6 | Inverness C | 14 | 20 | +1 | 5 ▲1 | As it looks | +1.1 | 1.71 | 1.14 | WLWWLD |
| 7 | Ayr | 13 | 15 | -4 | 8 ▼1 | As it looks | −3.0 | 1.14 | 1.17 | LWDLWL |
| 8 | Arbroath | 14 | 14 | -12 | 9 ▼1 | As it looks | −4.9 | 1.57 | 0.43 | LLLLLW |
| 9 | Morton | 13 | 13 | -7 | 6 ▲3 | As it looks | −5.0 | 0.86 | 1.17 | LLWWWW |
| 10 | Queens Park | 14 | 7 | -15 | 10 = | As it looks | −11.9 | 0.86 | 0.14 | LWLLLL |
How the season could finish
10,000 simulations of the rest of the season from the current ratings, allowing for the ratings themselves being wrong. Run-in: what an average side would expect per game from the fixtures left, against those already played (higher = easier). Regular season only.
| Team | Pts now | Left | Projected pts | Likely range | Avg finish | Champions | Top 3 | Bottom 2 | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partick | 28 | 22 | 66 | 58–74 | 2.0 | 49% | 88% | 0% | Similar (−0.03) |
| Dunfermline | 25 | 22 | 62 | 54–70 | 2.8 | 21% | 70% | <1% | Easier (+0.10) |
| Raith Rvs | 25 | 22 | 60 | 52–68 | 3.1 | 16% | 61% | 0% | Similar (−0.02) |
| Livingston | 21 | 22 | 60 | 52–67 | 3.3 | 11% | 54% | <1% | Easier (+0.07) |
| Inverness C | 20 | 22 | 53 | 45–61 | 4.9 | 2% | 17% | <1% | Similar (+0.05) |
| Stenhousemuir | 23 | 22 | 51 | 43–59 | 5.4 | 1% | 9% | 1% | Easier (+0.07) |
| Ayr | 15 | 23 | 41 | 33–49 | 7.4 | <1% | <1% | 19% | Harder (−0.06) |
| Morton | 13 | 23 | 37 | 30–45 | 8.1 | 0% | <1% | 41% | Harder (−0.08) |
| Arbroath | 14 | 22 | 37 | 30–45 | 8.2 | 0% | <1% | 45% | Similar (−0.01) |
| Queens Park | 7 | 22 | 28 | 20–35 | 9.7 | 0% | 0% | 93% | Similar (−0.02) |
Results against the table
Each row is a team; columns are their opponents in league order, 1st on the left. The number under each score is our performance measure for that game: how much better (+) or worse (−) than an average side in the same fixture.
WinDrawDefeatH home · A away · blank: not played yet
1
PAR
2
RAI
3
DUN
4
STE
5
LIV
6
INV
7
AYR
8
ARB
9
MOR
10
QUE
1. Partick
0-0 H
+0.1
1-1 A
+0.3
0-1 A
−0.7
3-0 H
+2.8
2-0 H
+2.3
2-1 A
+1.7
1-1 A
+0.3
1-0 H
+0.6
1-0 A
+1.0
3-0 H
+2.5
1-0 A
+0.8
2-3 H
−1.8
0-0 H
−0.6
1-0 A
+0.6
2. Raith Rvs
0-0 A
+0.6
0-1 A
−0.7
0-0 H
+0.2
1-1 H
−0.5
1-1 A
+0.3
0-2 H
−1.7
2-0 A
+2.3
0-2 H
−2.0
2-0 H
+1.6
4-0 H
+3.6
4-0 A
+3.8
2-1 A
+0.5
2-1 A
+0.8
2-0 H
+1.3
3. Dunfermline
1-1 H
+0.2
1-0 H
+0.9
0-0 A
+0.6
1-0 A
+1.2
0-2 A
−1.3
0-0 H
+0.2
0-0 A
+0.3
5-1 H
+4.1
1-1 H
−0.4
1-1 A
−0.0
1-1 A
+0.1
1-0 A
+0.6
2-0 H
+1.5
1-0 A
+0.6
4. Stenhousemuir
1-0 H
+1.2
0-3 A
−2.3
1-1 A
+0.3
1-1 H
+0.1
0-1 H
−1.0
1-0 A
+1.7
0-3 H
−2.8
3-1 H
+2.0
0-2 A
−1.7
1-0 A
+1.0
1-0 H
+0.5
2-0 H
+1.3
3-4 A
−1.3
2-0 A
+1.8
5. Livingston
0-2 A
−1.4
1-2 H
−0.8
2-0 A
+2.6
2-0 H
+1.9
0-0 A
+0.3
0-1 H
−1.3
3-0 A
+3.2
2-2 H
−0.1
1-1 A
+0.3
1-2 H
−1.5
0-1 A
−1.0
1-0 H
+0.4
4-1 A
+2.7
2-0 H
+1.5
6. Inverness C
1-1 H
+0.2
0-2 H
−2.1
2-0 A
+2.5
0-0 H
−0.0
1-5 A
−3.6
1-3 A
−1.9
2-0 H
+1.9
2-2 A
+0.7
1-1 H
+0.3
3-1 A
+2.0
0-0 A
−0.0
2-0 H
+1.4
2-0 H
+1.1
1-2 A
−1.3
7. Ayr
0-1 A
−0.4
0-1 H
−0.8
0-2 A
−1.7
1-1 A
+0.3
1-1 H
−0.0
0-1 H
−1.1
2-1 A
+1.8
1-3 H
−2.1
2-0 H
+1.6
1-4 A
−3.3
1-1 H
−0.8
2-0 A
+1.8
3-2 H
+0.3
8. Arbroath
0-3 A
−2.5
0-4 A
−3.6
0-4 H
−4.0
1-1 H
−0.1
0-1 A
−0.7
1-0 H
+1.3
0-1 A
−0.4
0-0 H
+0.0
0-2 A
−1.7
0-2 A
−2.1
4-1 H
+2.6
2-1 A
+0.7
1-2 H
−1.9
2-1 H
+0.4
9. Morton
0-1 H
−0.9
3-2 A
+1.7
1-2 H
−1.0
0-1 H
−1.0
0-2 A
−2.0
4-3 H
+0.6
1-4 H
−2.8
0-2 A
−1.7
1-1 A
−0.0
1-2 H
−1.4
2-1 A
+0.9
1-2 A
−1.2
2-0 H
+1.3
10. Queens Park
0-0 A
+0.7
0-1 H
−0.8
1-2 H
−1.2
0-2 A
−1.5
0-2 A
−1.7
0-1 H
−1.0
0-2 H
−2.4
0-2 A
−1.2
2-1 H
+1.0
0-2 H
−2.5
2-3 A
−1.0
1-2 A
−1.0
2-1 H
+0.3
0-2 A
−2.4
How their games go
From goal times this season: share of minutes spent ahead, level and behind, and what happens after the first goal. Small samples early in a season; descriptive only, the model doesn't use it.
| Team | Games | Ahead | Level | Behind | Ppg after scoring first (n) | Ppg after conceding first (n) | Leads won | Points from behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partick | 14 | 45% | 51% | 4% | 2.60 (10) | 0.00 (2) | 8 of 11 | 0 from 2 |
| Raith Rvs | 14 | 41% | 48% | 12% | 2.75 (8) | 0.25 (4) | 7 of 8 | 1 from 4 |
| Dunfermline | 14 | 22% | 69% | 10% | 2.43 (7) | 1.25 (4) | 6 of 8 | 5 from 4 |
| Stenhousemuir | 14 | 31% | 45% | 24% | 2.75 (8) | 0.17 (6) | 7 of 9 | 1 from 6 |
| Livingston | 14 | 24% | 49% | 26% | 2.71 (7) | 0.17 (6) | 6 of 7 | 2 from 7 |
| Inverness C | 14 | 32% | 42% | 27% | 2.00 (8) | 0.50 (4) | 5 of 9 | 2 from 6 |
| Ayr | 13 | 20% | 43% | 38% | 2.60 (5) | 0.25 (8) | 4 of 5 | 2 from 8 |
| Arbroath | 14 | 18% | 43% | 39% | 2.60 (5) | 0.00 (8) | 4 of 5 | 0 from 8 |
| Morton | 13 | 20% | 48% | 32% | 3.00 (4) | 0.11 (9) | 4 of 4 | 7 from 11 |
| Queens Park | 14 | 8% | 41% | 52% | 3.00 (1) | 0.25 (12) | 2 of 2 | 3 from 12 |
| League average (all teams) | 138 | 26% | 48% | 26% | 2.59 (63) | 0.25 (63) | 53 of 68 | 23 from 68 |
Points v an average side
| Team | Position | Points | Average side would have | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partick | 1 | 28 | 19.7 | +8.3 |
| Dunfermline | 3 | 25 | 18.5 | +6.5 |
| Raith Rvs | 2 | 25 | 19.6 | +5.4 |
| Stenhousemuir | 4 | 23 | 18.4 | +4.6 |
| Livingston | 5 | 21 | 19.1 | +1.9 |
| Inverness C | 6 | 20 | 18.9 | +1.1 |
| Ayr | 7 | 15 | 18.0 | −3.0 |
| Arbroath | 8 | 14 | 18.9 | −4.9 |
| Morton | 9 | 13 | 18.0 | −5.0 |
| Queens Park | 10 | 7 | 18.9 | −11.9 |
Fixtures
Every remaining league game. Chances are today's view from the current ratings: games more than a week away will move as results come in. Full previews open about a week before.
November 2026 · 9 games
Saturday 14 November
Friday 20 November
19:30
Inverness C (6) v Ayr (7)Inverness C win 52%
Saturday 21 November
15:00
Arbroath (8) v Stenhousemuir (4)Arbroath win 36%
15:00
Dunfermline (3) v Morton (9)Dunfermline win 60%
15:00
Queens Park (10) v Livingston (5)Livingston win 58%
15:00
Raith Rvs (2) v Partick (1)Raith Rvs win 38%
December 2026 · 21 games
Tuesday 1 December
19:45
Dunfermline (3) v Arbroath (8)Dunfermline win 62%
Friday 4 December
19:30
Livingston (5) v Raith Rvs (2)Livingston win 45%
Saturday 5 December
15:00
Morton (9) v Inverness C (6)Inverness C win 44%
15:00
Partick (1) v Dunfermline (3)Partick win 45%
15:00
Queens Park (10) v Arbroath (8)Queens Park win 37%
15:00
Stenhousemuir (4) v Ayr (7)Stenhousemuir win 44%
Friday 11 December
19:30
Arbroath (8) v Partick (1)Partick win 52%
Saturday 12 December
15:00
Ayr (7) v Livingston (5)Livingston win 50%
15:00
Dunfermline (3) v Stenhousemuir (4)Dunfermline win 55%
15:00
Inverness C (6) v Queens Park (10)Inverness C win 59%
15:00
Raith Rvs (2) v Morton (9)Raith Rvs win 60%
Friday 18 December
19:30
Queens Park (10) v Raith Rvs (2)Raith Rvs win 54%
Saturday 19 December
15:00
Livingston (5) v Dunfermline (3)Livingston win 43%
15:00
Morton (9) v Arbroath (8)Morton win 43%
15:00
Partick (1) v Ayr (7)Partick win 62%
15:00
Stenhousemuir (4) v Inverness C (6)Inverness C win 39%
Wednesday 23 December
19:30
Arbroath (8) v Inverness C (6)Inverness C win 45%
19:45
Ayr (7) v Morton (9)Ayr win 43%
Saturday 26 December
15:00
Dunfermline (3) v Raith Rvs (2)Dunfermline win 42%
15:00
Livingston (5) v Stenhousemuir (4)Livingston win 58%
15:00
Partick (1) v Queens Park (10)Partick win 69%
January 2027 · 20 games
Saturday 2 January
15:00
Inverness C (6) v Dunfermline (3)Dunfermline win 36%
15:00
Morton (9) v Livingston (5)Livingston win 51%
15:00
Queens Park (10) v Ayr (7)Ayr win 38%
15:00
Raith Rvs (2) v Arbroath (8)Raith Rvs win 61%
15:00
Stenhousemuir (4) v Partick (1)Partick win 46%
Saturday 9 January
15:00
Ayr (7) v Arbroath (8)Ayr win 45%
15:00
Dunfermline (3) v Queens Park (10)Dunfermline win 65%
15:00
Inverness C (6) v Raith Rvs (2)Inverness C win 37%
15:00
Partick (1) v Livingston (5)Partick win 42%
15:00
Stenhousemuir (4) v Morton (9)Stenhousemuir win 47%
Saturday 23 January
15:00
Arbroath (8) v Dunfermline (3)Dunfermline win 50%
15:00
Livingston (5) v Inverness C (6)Livingston win 48%
15:00
Morton (9) v Partick (1)Partick win 51%
15:00
Queens Park (10) v Stenhousemuir (4)Stenhousemuir win 41%
15:00
Raith Rvs (2) v Ayr (7)Raith Rvs win 57%
Saturday 30 January
15:00
Arbroath (8) v Livingston (5)Livingston win 52%
15:00
Dunfermline (3) v Ayr (7)Dunfermline win 58%
15:00
Inverness C (6) v Partick (1)Partick win 38%
15:00
Queens Park (10) v Morton (9)Morton win 36%
15:00
Raith Rvs (2) v Stenhousemuir (4)Raith Rvs win 55%
February 2027 · 15 games
Saturday 13 February
15:00
Ayr (7) v Inverness C (6)Inverness C win 42%
15:00
Livingston (5) v Queens Park (10)Livingston win 67%
15:00
Morton (9) v Dunfermline (3)Dunfermline win 49%
15:00
Partick (1) v Raith Rvs (2)Partick win 46%
15:00
Stenhousemuir (4) v Arbroath (8)Stenhousemuir win 48%
Saturday 20 February
15:00
Arbroath (8) v Queens Park (10)Arbroath win 45%
15:00
Ayr (7) v Stenhousemuir (4)Ayr win 38%
15:00
Dunfermline (3) v Partick (1)Dunfermline win 38%
15:00
Inverness C (6) v Morton (9)Inverness C win 54%
15:00
Raith Rvs (2) v Livingston (5)Raith Rvs win 38%
Saturday 27 February
15:00
Livingston (5) v Ayr (7)Livingston win 60%
15:00
Morton (9) v Raith Rvs (2)Raith Rvs win 47%
15:00
Partick (1) v Arbroath (8)Partick win 66%
15:00
Queens Park (10) v Inverness C (6)Inverness C win 50%
15:00
Stenhousemuir (4) v Dunfermline (3)Dunfermline win 44%
March 2027 · 20 games
Saturday 6 March
15:00
Arbroath (8) v Morton (9)Arbroath win 40%
15:00
Ayr (7) v Partick (1)Partick win 49%
15:00
Dunfermline (3) v Livingston (5)Dunfermline win 38%
15:00
Inverness C (6) v Stenhousemuir (4)Inverness C win 49%
15:00
Raith Rvs (2) v Queens Park (10)Raith Rvs win 64%
Saturday 13 March
15:00
Arbroath (8) v Raith Rvs (2)Raith Rvs win 48%
15:00
Dunfermline (3) v Inverness C (6)Dunfermline win 46%
15:00
Morton (9) v Ayr (7)Morton win 39%
15:00
Queens Park (10) v Partick (1)Partick win 57%
15:00
Stenhousemuir (4) v Livingston (5)Livingston win 46%
Saturday 20 March
15:00
Ayr (7) v Queens Park (10)Ayr win 48%
15:00
Inverness C (6) v Arbroath (8)Inverness C win 56%
15:00
Livingston (5) v Morton (9)Livingston win 63%
15:00
Partick (1) v Stenhousemuir (4)Partick win 59%
15:00
Raith Rvs (2) v Dunfermline (3)Raith Rvs win 40%
Saturday 27 March
15:00
Arbroath (8) v Ayr (7)Arbroath win 38%
15:00
Inverness C (6) v Livingston (5)Livingston win 38%
15:00
Morton (9) v Stenhousemuir (4)Morton win 37%
15:00
Queens Park (10) v Dunfermline (3)Dunfermline win 56%
15:00
Raith Rvs (2) v Partick (1)Raith Rvs win 38%
April 2027 · 25 games
Saturday 3 April
15:00
Ayr (7) v Raith Rvs (2)Raith Rvs win 45%
15:00
Dunfermline (3) v Morton (9)Dunfermline win 60%
15:00
Livingston (5) v Arbroath (8)Livingston win 64%
15:00
Partick (1) v Inverness C (6)Partick win 50%
15:00
Stenhousemuir (4) v Queens Park (10)Stenhousemuir win 52%
Saturday 10 April
15:00
Arbroath (8) v Stenhousemuir (4)Arbroath win 36%
15:00
Ayr (7) v Dunfermline (3)Dunfermline win 47%
15:00
Partick (1) v Morton (9)Partick win 64%
15:00
Queens Park (10) v Livingston (5)Livingston win 58%
15:00
Raith Rvs (2) v Inverness C (6)Raith Rvs win 45%
Saturday 17 April
15:00
Dunfermline (3) v Arbroath (8)Dunfermline win 62%
15:00
Inverness C (6) v Ayr (7)Inverness C win 52%
15:00
Livingston (5) v Partick (1)Livingston win 41%
15:00
Morton (9) v Queens Park (10)Morton win 46%
15:00
Stenhousemuir (4) v Raith Rvs (2)Raith Rvs win 42%
Saturday 24 April
15:00
Livingston (5) v Raith Rvs (2)Livingston win 45%
15:00
Morton (9) v Inverness C (6)Inverness C win 44%
15:00
Partick (1) v Dunfermline (3)Partick win 45%
15:00
Queens Park (10) v Arbroath (8)Queens Park win 37%
15:00
Stenhousemuir (4) v Ayr (7)Stenhousemuir win 44%
Friday 30 April
19:45
Arbroath (8) v Partick (1)Partick win 52%
19:45
Ayr (7) v Livingston (5)Livingston win 50%
19:45
Dunfermline (3) v Stenhousemuir (4)Dunfermline win 55%
19:45
Inverness C (6) v Queens Park (10)Inverness C win 59%
19:45
Raith Rvs (2) v Morton (9)Raith Rvs win 60%