2026-27 · results to Sat 7 Nov
Championship: form in context
The table says where teams are. This page says how they got there: who they beat, who beat them, and whether the performances back it up.
The table, and the table behind it
Performance rank orders teams by how well they have played, adjusted for who they played and where. Five or more places from their real position earns a verdict. Points v average side: points won minus what an average team would have taken from the same fixtures.
| Pos | Team | P | Pts | GD | Performance rank | Verdict | Pts v average side | Home ppg | Away ppg | Last 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 29 | +14 | 6 ▼5 | Flattered | +9.1 | 2.00 | 1.86 | WWLWWW |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 29 | +11 | 1 ▲1 | As it looks | +8.7 | 2.43 | 1.50 | WDWWLD |
| 3 | Stoke | 15 | 29 | +6 | 17 ▼14 | Flattered | +8.2 | 1.86 | 2.00 | LWDWWW |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 28 | +14 | 8 ▼4 | As it looks | +7.4 | 2.71 | 1.13 | WDWWDL |
| 5 | West Brom | 15 | 28 | +8 | 4 ▲1 | As it looks | +8.2 | 1.88 | 1.86 | WWDWDW |
| 6 | Wolves | 15 | 28 | +8 | 2 ▲4 | As it looks | +7.2 | 2.00 | 1.75 | WDWWWD |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 26 | +4 | 10 ▼3 | As it looks | +6.7 | 2.00 | 1.50 | WLLWLL |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 24 | +6 | 5 ▲3 | As it looks | +3.5 | 1.88 | 1.29 | WLWLDW |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 23 | +14 | 3 ▲6 | Better than it looks | +2.8 | 1.43 | 1.63 | WWLLDL |
| 10 | Portsmouth | 15 | 22 | +2 | 16 ▼6 | Flattered | +1.2 | 1.63 | 1.29 | WDWDWL |
| 11 | Sheffield United | 15 | 22 | +2 | 13 ▼2 | As it looks | +0.3 | 1.57 | 1.38 | LWDWWL |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 21 | +8 | 11 ▲1 | As it looks | +0.4 | 1.29 | 1.50 | LLWWWW |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 21 | -1 | 22 ▼9 | Flattered | +0.7 | 1.88 | 0.86 | WLWLLW |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 18 | 0 | 7 ▲7 | Better than it looks | −2.7 | 2.00 | 0.29 | WDWLDW |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 18 | -2 | 12 ▲3 | As it looks | −1.4 | 1.50 | 0.86 | LWLLWD |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 18 | -4 | 9 ▲7 | Better than it looks | −2.0 | 1.57 | 0.88 | LDLWLL |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 18 | -8 | 14 ▲3 | As it looks | −3.0 | 0.75 | 1.71 | LLDWLL |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 17 | -9 | 20 ▼2 | As it looks | −2.8 | 0.86 | 1.38 | WDLLWL |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 17 | -10 | 19 = | As it looks | −4.1 | 1.50 | 0.71 | DLLLLW |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 15 | -10 | 23 ▼3 | As it looks | −5.1 | 1.75 | 0.14 | LWLLWD |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 15 | -11 | 15 ▲6 | Better than it looks | −4.9 | 0.71 | 1.25 | LDWLLL |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 10 | -9 | 18 ▲4 | As it looks | −10.0 | 0.71 | 0.63 | DLLDDL |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 10 | -16 | 24 ▼1 | As it looks | −10.9 | 0.63 | 0.71 | LLDLLW |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 8 | -17 | 21 ▲3 | As it looks | −12.8 | 0.88 | 0.14 | LLDLLW |
How the season could finish
10,000 simulations of the rest of the season from the current ratings, allowing for the ratings themselves being wrong. Run-in: what an average side would expect per game from the fixtures left, against those already played (higher = easier). Regular season only.
| Team | Pts now | Left | Projected pts | Likely range | Avg finish | Champions | Top 2 | Top 6 | Bottom 3 | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 29 | 31 | 85 | 75–95 | 3.1 | 30% | 50% | 92% | 0% | Similar (+0.03) |
| West Ham | 23 | 31 | 82 | 72–92 | 3.8 | 20% | 38% | 86% | 0% | Similar (+0.04) |
| Birmingham | 29 | 31 | 81 | 71–91 | 4.2 | 16% | 33% | 82% | 0% | Easier (+0.06) |
| Southampton | 28 | 31 | 81 | 70–90 | 4.4 | 15% | 30% | 80% | 0% | Similar (+0.00) |
| Wolves | 28 | 31 | 81 | 70–91 | 4.5 | 13% | 27% | 79% | <1% | Similar (−0.01) |
| West Brom | 28 | 31 | 76 | 65–86 | 6.4 | 4% | 11% | 57% | <1% | Easier (+0.06) |
| Norwich | 21 | 31 | 70 | 60–80 | 8.6 | 1% | 3% | 31% | <1% | Similar (+0.00) |
| Swansea | 26 | 31 | 70 | 60–81 | 8.7 | 1% | 4% | 29% | <1% | Easier (+0.10) |
| Stoke | 29 | 31 | 68 | 58–78 | 9.8 | 1% | 2% | 20% | <1% | Similar (−0.04) |
| QPR | 24 | 31 | 66 | 56–76 | 10.7 | <1% | 1% | 15% | <1% | Similar (−0.01) |
| Sheffield United | 22 | 31 | 63 | 53–73 | 12.3 | <1% | <1% | 7% | 1% | Harder (−0.12) |
| Portsmouth | 22 | 31 | 62 | 52–72 | 12.9 | <1% | <1% | 6% | 2% | Harder (−0.05) |
| Millwall | 18 | 31 | 62 | 52–72 | 13.1 | <1% | <1% | 6% | 2% | Easier (+0.05) |
| Cardiff | 18 | 31 | 61 | 51–71 | 13.5 | <1% | <1% | 4% | 2% | Similar (−0.03) |
| Wrexham | 18 | 31 | 59 | 49–69 | 14.7 | 0% | <1% | 3% | 3% | Easier (+0.09) |
| Blackburn | 21 | 31 | 59 | 49–68 | 14.8 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 4% | Similar (+0.01) |
| Bristol City | 18 | 31 | 55 | 45–65 | 16.8 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 9% | Harder (−0.07) |
| Bolton | 17 | 31 | 54 | 44–64 | 17.2 | <1% | <1% | <1% | 11% | Similar (+0.04) |
| Lincoln | 15 | 31 | 53 | 43–63 | 17.7 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 15% | Similar (+0.05) |
| Burnley | 10 | 31 | 53 | 43–63 | 17.8 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 16% | Similar (+0.05) |
| Watford | 15 | 31 | 49 | 39–59 | 19.4 | 0% | <1% | <1% | 30% | Similar (+0.02) |
| Charlton | 17 | 31 | 46 | 37–55 | 20.6 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 47% | Harder (−0.09) |
| Derby | 10 | 31 | 43 | 33–52 | 21.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 66% | Similar (−0.04) |
| Preston | 8 | 31 | 36 | 27–45 | 23.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 92% | Harder (−0.07) |
Results against the table
Each row is a team; columns are their opponents in league order, 1st on the left. The number under each score is our performance measure for that game: how much better (+) or worse (−) than an average side in the same fixture.
How their games go
From goal times this season: share of minutes spent ahead, level and behind, and what happens after the first goal. Small samples early in a season; descriptive only, the model doesn't use it.
| Team | Games | Ahead | Level | Behind | Ppg after scoring first (n) | Ppg after conceding first (n) | Leads won | Points from behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 15 | 37% | 50% | 13% | 3.00 (7) | 1.00 (7) | 8 of 9 | 7 from 7 |
| Middlesbrough | 15 | 34% | 50% | 17% | 2.22 (9) | 1.60 (5) | 8 of 11 | 9 from 7 |
| Stoke | 15 | 35% | 50% | 15% | 2.20 (10) | 1.50 (4) | 9 of 12 | 6 from 6 |
| Southampton | 15 | 39% | 47% | 14% | 2.56 (9) | 0.80 (5) | 8 of 10 | 4 from 5 |
| West Brom | 15 | 24% | 60% | 16% | 2.43 (7) | 1.38 (8) | 8 of 10 | 11 from 8 |
| Wolves | 15 | 30% | 51% | 19% | 2.11 (9) | 1.50 (6) | 8 of 12 | 10 from 7 |
| Swansea | 15 | 31% | 43% | 26% | 3.00 (5) | 1.13 (8) | 8 of 8 | 9 from 8 |
| QPR | 15 | 27% | 47% | 26% | 2.33 (6) | 1.14 (7) | 6 of 8 | 8 from 7 |
| West Ham | 15 | 30% | 36% | 34% | 2.71 (7) | 0.50 (8) | 6 of 7 | 7 from 9 |
| Portsmouth | 15 | 25% | 51% | 24% | 2.00 (8) | 0.80 (5) | 6 of 9 | 5 from 8 |
| Sheffield United | 15 | 26% | 59% | 15% | 2.25 (4) | 1.22 (9) | 6 of 8 | 11 from 10 |
| Norwich | 15 | 35% | 32% | 33% | 1.88 (8) | 0.86 (7) | 7 of 10 | 6 from 10 |
| Blackburn | 15 | 31% | 45% | 24% | 1.88 (8) | 0.83 (6) | 6 of 11 | 5 from 9 |
| Cardiff | 15 | 26% | 39% | 36% | 1.86 (7) | 0.63 (8) | 4 of 8 | 6 from 9 |
| Wrexham | 15 | 19% | 55% | 27% | 2.17 (6) | 0.50 (8) | 4 of 6 | 4 from 9 |
| Millwall | 15 | 30% | 42% | 28% | 1.89 (9) | 0.17 (6) | 5 of 9 | 1 from 8 |
| Bristol City | 15 | 18% | 51% | 31% | 2.17 (6) | 0.50 (8) | 5 of 7 | 7 from 10 |
| Bolton | 15 | 19% | 60% | 21% | 2.00 (6) | 0.43 (7) | 5 of 9 | 3 from 9 |
| Charlton | 15 | 14% | 50% | 35% | 2.00 (5) | 0.63 (8) | 4 of 6 | 5 from 9 |
| Watford | 15 | 18% | 43% | 40% | 1.83 (6) | 0.38 (8) | 4 of 7 | 3 from 9 |
| Lincoln | 15 | 19% | 51% | 30% | 1.67 (6) | 0.50 (8) | 4 of 7 | 4 from 10 |
| Burnley | 15 | 27% | 45% | 28% | 0.70 (10) | 0.50 (4) | 1 of 10 | 2 from 9 |
| Derby | 15 | 20% | 32% | 48% | 1.00 (5) | 0.50 (10) | 2 of 6 | 5 from 12 |
| Preston | 15 | 24% | 39% | 38% | 1.33 (6) | 0.00 (9) | 2 of 6 | 0 from 11 |
| League average (all teams) | 360 | 27% | 47% | 27% | 2.04 (169) | 0.76 (169) | 134 of 206 | 138 from 206 |
Points v an average side
| Team | Position | Points | Average side would have | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1 | 29 | 19.9 | +9.1 |
| Middlesbrough | 2 | 29 | 20.3 | +8.7 |
| Stoke | 3 | 29 | 20.8 | +8.2 |
| West Brom | 5 | 28 | 19.8 | +8.2 |
| Southampton | 4 | 28 | 20.6 | +7.4 |
| Wolves | 6 | 28 | 20.8 | +7.2 |
| Swansea | 7 | 26 | 19.3 | +6.7 |
| QPR | 8 | 24 | 20.5 | +3.5 |
| West Ham | 9 | 23 | 20.2 | +2.8 |
| Portsmouth | 10 | 22 | 20.8 | +1.2 |
| Blackburn | 13 | 21 | 20.3 | +0.7 |
| Norwich | 12 | 21 | 20.6 | +0.4 |
| Sheffield United | 11 | 22 | 21.7 | +0.3 |
| Wrexham | 15 | 18 | 19.4 | −1.4 |
| Millwall | 16 | 18 | 20.0 | −2.0 |
| Cardiff | 14 | 18 | 20.7 | −2.7 |
| Bolton | 18 | 17 | 19.8 | −2.8 |
| Bristol City | 17 | 18 | 21.0 | −3.0 |
| Charlton | 19 | 17 | 21.1 | −4.1 |
| Lincoln | 21 | 15 | 19.9 | −4.9 |
| Watford | 20 | 15 | 20.1 | −5.1 |
| Burnley | 22 | 10 | 20.0 | −10.0 |
| Derby | 23 | 10 | 20.9 | −10.9 |
| Preston | 24 | 8 | 20.8 | −12.8 |
Fixtures
Every remaining league game. Chances are today's view from the current ratings: games more than a week away will move as results come in. Full previews open about a week before.
November 2026 · 36 games
Saturday 21 November
Sunday 22 November
Tuesday 24 November
Wednesday 25 November
Friday 27 November
Saturday 28 November
Sunday 29 November
December 2026 · 72 games
Friday 4 December
Saturday 5 December
Sunday 6 December
Tuesday 8 December
Wednesday 9 December
Friday 11 December
Saturday 12 December
Sunday 13 December
Friday 18 December
Saturday 19 December
Saturday 26 December
Tuesday 29 December
January 2027 · 60 games
Friday 1 January
Saturday 16 January
Saturday 23 January
Tuesday 26 January
Wednesday 27 January
Saturday 30 January
February 2027 · 60 games
Saturday 6 February
Saturday 13 February
Tuesday 16 February
Wednesday 17 February
Saturday 20 February
Sunday 21 February
Saturday 27 February
Sunday 28 February
March 2027 · 60 games
Tuesday 2 March
Wednesday 3 March
Saturday 6 March
Saturday 13 March
Tuesday 16 March
Wednesday 17 March
Saturday 20 March
April 2027 · 72 games
Saturday 3 April
Tuesday 6 April
Wednesday 7 April
Saturday 10 April
Saturday 17 April
Tuesday 20 April
Wednesday 21 April
Saturday 24 April
May 2027 · 12 games
Saturday 1 May