2026-27 · results to Sun 8 Nov
Primeira Liga: form in context
The table says where teams are. This page says how they got there: who they beat, who beat them, and whether the performances back it up.
The table, and the table behind it
Performance rank orders teams by how well they have played, adjusted for who they played and where. Five or more places from their real position earns a verdict. Points v average side: points won minus what an average team would have taken from the same fixtures.
| Pos | Team | P | Pts | GD | Performance rank | Verdict | Pts v average side | Home ppg | Away ppg | Last 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 11 | 33 | +22 | 1 = | As it looks | +16.6 | 3.00 | 3.00 | WWWWWW |
| 2 | Benfica | 11 | 28 | +20 | 2 = | As it looks | +11.6 | 2.60 | 2.50 | WLWWWW |
| 3 | Sp Lisbon | 11 | 24 | +13 | 3 = | As it looks | +6.9 | 2.17 | 2.20 | DDWLWW |
| 4 | Santa Clara | 11 | 21 | +8 | 9 ▼5 | Flattered | +5.0 | 1.33 | 2.60 | WDWLWL |
| 5 | Arouca | 11 | 20 | +5 | 7 ▼2 | As it looks | +5.1 | 2.40 | 1.33 | LDWWWL |
| 6 | Academico Viseu | 11 | 20 | +2 | 13 ▼7 | Flattered | +5.5 | 1.80 | 1.83 | WWWWWL |
| 7 | Gil Vicente | 11 | 18 | +2 | 6 ▲1 | As it looks | +2.9 | 1.33 | 2.00 | DWWLDW |
| 8 | Sp Braga | 11 | 17 | +2 | 4 ▲4 | As it looks | +1.1 | 1.80 | 1.33 | DLLLWW |
| 9 | Moreirense | 11 | 14 | -5 | 17 ▼8 | Flattered | +0.0 | 1.40 | 1.17 | WDLWWL |
| 10 | Famalicao | 11 | 13 | +1 | 12 ▼2 | As it looks | −2.6 | 1.00 | 1.33 | DWLWLW |
| 11 | Alverca | 11 | 12 | -1 | 10 ▲1 | As it looks | −1.9 | 1.00 | 1.20 | WWWLLD |
| 12 | Estrela | 11 | 10 | -5 | 8 ▲4 | As it looks | −4.7 | 0.83 | 1.00 | DLLLLL |
| 13 | Nacional | 11 | 10 | -8 | 15 ▼2 | As it looks | −5.3 | 1.50 | 0.20 | LLLWLW |
| 14 | Guimaraes | 11 | 9 | -1 | 5 ▲9 | Better than it looks | −5.1 | 1.33 | 0.20 | LDLWDL |
| 15 | Maritimo | 10 | 8 | -12 | 11 ▲4 | As it looks | −4.5 | 0.80 | 0.80 | LLDLLL |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 11 | 8 | -14 | 16 = | As it looks | −5.7 | 0.00 | 1.33 | LWLWLD |
| 17 | Rio Ave | 11 | 7 | -15 | 18 ▼1 | As it looks | −7.1 | 0.67 | 0.60 | DLWLLL |
| 18 | Estoril | 10 | 2 | -14 | 14 ▲4 | As it looks | −11.2 | 0.40 | 0.00 | DLLLLL |
How the season could finish
10,000 simulations of the rest of the season from the current ratings, allowing for the ratings themselves being wrong. Run-in: what an average side would expect per game from the fixtures left, against those already played (higher = easier). Regular season only.
| Team | Pts now | Left | Projected pts | Likely range | Avg finish | Champions | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porto | 33 | 23 | 86 | 79–93 | 1.2 | 79% | >99% | 0% | Harder (−0.10) |
| Benfica | 28 | 23 | 80 | 72–87 | 2.0 | 19% | >99% | 0% | Harder (−0.10) |
| Sp Lisbon | 24 | 23 | 72 | 65–79 | 2.9 | 2% | 99% | 0% | Harder (−0.20) |
| Sp Braga | 17 | 23 | 55 | 47–62 | 6.0 | 0% | 26% | 0% | Harder (−0.08) |
| Santa Clara | 21 | 23 | 54 | 46–62 | 6.1 | 0% | 26% | 0% | Harder (−0.11) |
| Arouca | 20 | 23 | 53 | 45–61 | 6.4 | 0% | 22% | <1% | Similar (+0.02) |
| Academico Viseu | 20 | 23 | 51 | 43–59 | 7.0 | 0% | 13% | <1% | Easier (+0.07) |
| Gil Vicente | 18 | 23 | 51 | 42–59 | 7.3 | 0% | 10% | <1% | Similar (+0.01) |
| Famalicao | 13 | 23 | 47 | 40–55 | 8.4 | 0% | 3% | <1% | Harder (−0.07) |
| Alverca | 12 | 23 | 42 | 33–50 | 10.6 | 0% | 1% | 2% | Easier (+0.15) |
| Moreirense | 14 | 23 | 41 | 33–49 | 10.9 | 0% | <1% | 2% | Easier (+0.12) |
| Guimaraes | 9 | 23 | 40 | 32–48 | 11.2 | 0% | <1% | 3% | Easier (+0.13) |
| Estrela | 10 | 23 | 33 | 26–41 | 13.7 | 0% | <1% | 22% | Similar (+0.01) |
| Nacional | 10 | 23 | 33 | 26–41 | 13.8 | 0% | 0% | 21% | Harder (−0.07) |
| Casa Pia | 8 | 23 | 29 | 21–36 | 15.5 | 0% | 0% | 54% | Easier (+0.14) |
| Maritimo | 8 | 24 | 28 | 21–35 | 15.6 | 0% | 0% | 57% | Easier (+0.12) |
| Estoril | 2 | 24 | 26 | 18–34 | 16.1 | 0% | 0% | 68% | Similar (+0.04) |
| Rio Ave | 7 | 23 | 26 | 19–34 | 16.2 | 0% | 0% | 71% | Easier (+0.08) |
Results against the table
Each row is a team; columns are their opponents in league order, 1st on the left. The number under each score is our performance measure for that game: how much better (+) or worse (−) than an average side in the same fixture.
How their games go
From goal times this season: share of minutes spent ahead, level and behind, and what happens after the first goal. Small samples early in a season; descriptive only, the model doesn't use it.
| Team | Games | Ahead | Level | Behind | Ppg after scoring first (n) | Ppg after conceding first (n) | Leads won | Points from behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porto | 11 | 55% | 40% | 5% | 3.00 (8) | 3.00 (3) | 11 of 11 | 9 from 3 |
| Benfica | 11 | 48% | 41% | 11% | 2.75 (8) | 2.00 (3) | 9 of 10 | 6 from 3 |
| Sp Lisbon | 11 | 57% | 35% | 8% | 2.33 (9) | 1.50 (2) | 7 of 10 | 3 from 2 |
| Santa Clara | 11 | 44% | 51% | 5% | 2.11 (9) | 1.00 (1) | 6 of 9 | 1 from 3 |
| Arouca | 11 | 32% | 49% | 19% | 3.00 (5) | 0.80 (5) | 6 of 6 | 4 from 5 |
| Academico Viseu | 11 | 34% | 41% | 25% | 2.67 (6) | 0.80 (5) | 6 of 7 | 4 from 5 |
| Gil Vicente | 11 | 21% | 64% | 16% | 2.00 (5) | 1.50 (4) | 5 of 7 | 6 from 5 |
| Sp Braga | 10 | 23% | 59% | 18% | 1.43 (7) | 1.50 (2) | 4 of 8 | 3 from 5 |
| Moreirense | 11 | 28% | 52% | 20% | 2.17 (6) | 0.20 (5) | 4 of 6 | 1 from 6 |
| Famalicao | 11 | 24% | 58% | 19% | 1.83 (6) | 0.25 (4) | 3 of 6 | 2 from 6 |
| Alverca | 11 | 25% | 40% | 35% | 2.00 (5) | 0.33 (6) | 3 of 6 | 2 from 7 |
| Estrela | 11 | 11% | 44% | 45% | 1.00 (2) | 0.89 (9) | 2 of 5 | 9 from 10 |
| Nacional | 11 | 15% | 48% | 37% | 1.80 (5) | 0.17 (6) | 3 of 5 | 1 from 8 |
| Guimaraes | 10 | 15% | 54% | 31% | 3.00 (2) | 0.17 (6) | 2 of 2 | 1 from 6 |
| Maritimo | 10 | 8% | 41% | 51% | 1.00 (3) | 0.71 (7) | 2 of 4 | 5 from 9 |
| Casa Pia | 11 | 9% | 54% | 37% | 1.33 (3) | 0.43 (7) | 2 of 4 | 3 from 8 |
| Rio Ave | 11 | 13% | 40% | 48% | 1.50 (2) | 0.44 (9) | 2 of 3 | 4 from 10 |
| Estoril | 10 | 0% | 57% | 43% | 0.00 (1) | 0.13 (8) | 0 of 1 | 1 from 9 |
| League average (all teams) | 194 | 26% | 48% | 26% | 2.15 (92) | 0.69 (92) | 77 of 110 | 65 from 110 |
Points v an average side
| Team | Position | Points | Average side would have | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porto | 1 | 33 | 16.4 | +16.6 |
| Benfica | 2 | 28 | 16.4 | +11.6 |
| Sp Lisbon | 3 | 24 | 17.1 | +6.9 |
| Academico Viseu | 6 | 20 | 14.5 | +5.5 |
| Arouca | 5 | 20 | 14.9 | +5.1 |
| Santa Clara | 4 | 21 | 16.0 | +5.0 |
| Gil Vicente | 7 | 18 | 15.1 | +2.9 |
| Sp Braga | 8 | 17 | 15.9 | +1.1 |
| Moreirense | 9 | 14 | 14.0 | +0.0 |
| Alverca | 11 | 12 | 13.9 | −1.9 |
| Famalicao | 10 | 13 | 15.6 | −2.6 |
| Maritimo | 15 | 8 | 12.5 | −4.5 |
| Estrela | 12 | 10 | 14.7 | −4.7 |
| Guimaraes | 14 | 9 | 14.1 | −5.1 |
| Nacional | 13 | 10 | 15.3 | −5.3 |
| Casa Pia | 16 | 8 | 13.7 | −5.7 |
| Rio Ave | 17 | 7 | 14.1 | −7.1 |
| Estoril | 18 | 2 | 13.2 | −11.2 |
Fixtures
Every remaining league game. Chances are today's view from the current ratings: games more than a week away will move as results come in. Full previews open about a week before.
November 2026 · 9 games
Friday 27 November
Saturday 28 November
Sunday 29 November
Monday 30 November
December 2026 · 36 games
Sunday 6 December
Sunday 13 December
Sunday 20 December
Sunday 27 December
January 2027 · 36 games
Sunday 10 January
Sunday 17 January
Sunday 24 January
Sunday 31 January
February 2027 · 36 games
Sunday 7 February
Sunday 14 February
Sunday 21 February
Sunday 28 February
March 2027 · 27 games
Sunday 7 March
Sunday 14 March
Sunday 21 March
April 2027 · 36 games
Sunday 4 April
Sunday 11 April
Sunday 18 April
Sunday 25 April
May 2027 · 27 games
Sunday 2 May
Sunday 9 May
Sunday 16 May