Record
How the model has done
Every pick, right or wrong. The test of a probability model isn't how often it's right, but whether its 60% calls come in about 60% of the time.
Logged live, before kick-off
Every prediction here was published before the game started and can't be changed afterwards. This record starts on 6 November 2026, when the site began logging live.
Shortlist
77%
24 right from 31. The model said 66%.
Every pick
54%
52 right from 97. The model said 51%.
Early days: 97 settled games so far. A record means little under a few hundred games, so judge it over the season.
This season, recreated
Shortlist (55%+ on one result)
65%
268 right from 410. The model said 65%.
Every pick
51%
696 right from 1355. The model said 50%.
Does it mean what it says?
Picks grouped by how confident the model was. If it is honest, "Came off" should sit close to "Model said" in every row.
| Model's confidence | Picks | Model said | Came off |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under 45% | 549 | 40% | 40% |
| 45–50% | 221 | 47% | 50% |
| 50–55% | 175 | 52% | 55% |
| 55–60% | 124 | 57% | 52% |
| 60–65% | 114 | 62% | 61% |
| 65–70% | 65 | 67% | 69% |
| 70% and over | 107 | 78% | 82% |
By league
| League | Picks | Right | Shortlist | Shortlist right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | 90 | 44% | 29 | 66% |
| Championship | 168 | 48% | 23 | 43% |
| League One | 158 | 47% | 32 | 59% |
| League Two | 164 | 42% | 14 | 43% |
| Scottish Premiership | 69 | 48% | 29 | 59% |
| Scottish Championship | 64 | 56% | 9 | 67% |
| Bundesliga (Germany) | 72 | 49% | 31 | 65% |
| Serie A (Italy) | 100 | 63% | 49 | 76% |
| La Liga (Spain) | 109 | 54% | 45 | 71% |
| Ligue 1 (France) | 81 | 53% | 28 | 71% |
| Eredivisie (Netherlands) | 99 | 53% | 45 | 58% |
| Primeira Liga (Portugal) | 91 | 58% | 41 | 73% |
| Pro League (Belgium) | 90 | 63% | 35 | 74% |
This season to 2026-11-08: 1,355 league games. Recreated from ratings built only on games played before each one, so no result could leak into its own prediction. The live record above is kept separately.