2026-27 · results to Tue 3 Nov
League Two: form in context
The table says where teams are. This page says how they got there: who they beat, who beat them, and whether the performances back it up.
The table, and the table behind it
Performance rank orders teams by how well they have played, adjusted for who they played and where. Five or more places from their real position earns a verdict. Points v average side: points won minus what an average team would have taken from the same fixtures.
| Pos | Team | P | Pts | GD | Performance rank | Verdict | Pts v average side | Home ppg | Away ppg | Last 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salford | 14 | 31 | +10 | 8 ▼7 | Flattered | +11.9 | 2.57 | 1.86 | WWWWWW |
| 2 | Barnet | 13 | 26 | +10 | 5 ▼3 | As it looks | +7.8 | 2.00 | 2.00 | WWLDWD |
| 3 | Walsall | 13 | 22 | +9 | 14 ▼11 | Flattered | +4.5 | 1.83 | 1.57 | DDDWLW |
| 4 | Crewe | 14 | 22 | 0 | 15 ▼11 | Flattered | +3.3 | 1.86 | 1.29 | WWWLLD |
| 5 | Cheltenham | 14 | 21 | -2 | 23 ▼18 | Flattered | +2.6 | 2.29 | 0.71 | LLLWWL |
| 6 | Grimsby | 14 | 20 | +6 | 1 ▲5 | Better than it looks | −0.1 | 1.86 | 1.00 | LLLDWW |
| 7 | York | 14 | 20 | +3 | 6 ▲1 | As it looks | +1.2 | 2.43 | 0.43 | DDDWLL |
| 8 | Gillingham | 14 | 20 | +1 | 20 ▼12 | Flattered | +0.7 | 1.29 | 1.57 | DWLDLW |
| 9 | Accrington | 14 | 19 | +6 | 7 ▲2 | As it looks | −0.3 | 1.86 | 0.86 | WDWDWD |
| 10 | Chesterfield | 14 | 19 | +3 | 2 ▲8 | Better than it looks | −0.2 | 1.71 | 1.00 | WDLDWL |
| 11 | Exeter | 14 | 19 | +2 | 10 ▲1 | As it looks | +0.6 | 2.14 | 0.57 | WWDWWL |
| 12 | Tranmere | 14 | 19 | +2 | 16 ▼4 | As it looks | −0.2 | 1.71 | 1.00 | LDLWDW |
| 13 | Swindon | 14 | 19 | -2 | 19 ▼6 | Flattered | −0.2 | 2.00 | 0.71 | LLDWDW |
| 14 | Newport County | 14 | 18 | +3 | 13 ▲1 | As it looks | −1.2 | 2.14 | 0.43 | DWDDLW |
| 15 | Shrewsbury | 14 | 18 | -5 | 3 ▲12 | Better than it looks | −1.2 | 1.43 | 1.14 | WLWWDL |
| 16 | Fleetwood Town | 14 | 17 | 0 | 11 ▲5 | Better than it looks | −2.0 | 1.71 | 0.71 | LDWLLW |
| 17 | Bristol Rvs | 14 | 16 | -6 | 9 ▲8 | Better than it looks | −2.9 | 1.86 | 0.43 | LLLLDL |
| 18 | Oldham | 14 | 15 | -4 | 12 ▲6 | Better than it looks | −4.3 | 1.43 | 0.71 | DWLDLW |
| 19 | Port Vale | 12 | 15 | -4 | 4 ▲15 | Better than it looks | −1.2 | 2.33 | 0.17 | LWWDLW |
| 20 | Rochdale | 14 | 15 | -9 | 24 ▼4 | As it looks | −4.7 | 1.43 | 0.71 | WDLDLL |
| 21 | Northampton | 13 | 14 | -1 | 22 ▼1 | As it looks | −4.6 | 1.14 | 1.00 | DWLWDL |
| 22 | Colchester | 13 | 12 | -7 | 17 ▲5 | Better than it looks | −6.0 | 1.50 | 0.43 | DLDDLL |
| 23 | Rotherham | 14 | 12 | -7 | 21 ▲2 | As it looks | −8.1 | 1.14 | 0.57 | LLLDDL |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 12 | 9 | -8 | 18 ▲6 | Better than it looks | −7.6 | 0.33 | 1.17 | LDLLDW |
How the season could finish
10,000 simulations of the rest of the season from the current ratings, allowing for the ratings themselves being wrong. Run-in: what an average side would expect per game from the fixtures left, against those already played (higher = easier). Regular season only.
| Team | Pts now | Left | Projected pts | Likely range | Avg finish | Champions | Top 3 | Top 7 | Bottom 2 | Run-in |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford | 31 | 32 | 86 | 76–96 | 2.0 | 54% | 89% | 99% | 0% | Similar (+0.03) |
| Barnet | 26 | 33 | 82 | 71–92 | 2.9 | 28% | 75% | 95% | 0% | Similar (−0.01) |
| Grimsby | 20 | 32 | 74 | 64–84 | 5.5 | 7% | 37% | 77% | <1% | Harder (−0.07) |
| Chesterfield | 19 | 32 | 71 | 60–81 | 7.2 | 3% | 21% | 61% | <1% | Similar (+0.01) |
| Walsall | 22 | 33 | 70 | 59–80 | 7.5 | 3% | 19% | 59% | <1% | Similar (+0.04) |
| Exeter | 19 | 32 | 69 | 59–79 | 7.9 | 2% | 17% | 55% | <1% | Easier (+0.09) |
| Port Vale | 15 | 34 | 67 | 56–78 | 9.5 | 1% | 11% | 43% | 1% | Similar (+0.04) |
| Accrington | 19 | 32 | 64 | 54–75 | 10.9 | 1% | 6% | 31% | 2% | Similar (−0.02) |
| Fleetwood Town | 17 | 32 | 64 | 53–75 | 11.1 | 1% | 6% | 30% | 2% | Similar (+0.03) |
| Crewe | 22 | 32 | 63 | 53–74 | 11.6 | <1% | 5% | 26% | 2% | Similar (+0.04) |
| York | 20 | 32 | 63 | 53–73 | 11.6 | <1% | 5% | 26% | 2% | Similar (+0.04) |
| Oldham | 15 | 32 | 60 | 49–70 | 13.9 | <1% | 2% | 14% | 5% | Similar (+0.00) |
| Swindon | 19 | 32 | 59 | 49–69 | 14.3 | <1% | 2% | 12% | 6% | Similar (−0.01) |
| Bristol Rvs | 16 | 32 | 59 | 49–70 | 14.3 | <1% | 2% | 13% | 5% | Similar (+0.03) |
| Tranmere | 19 | 32 | 58 | 48–68 | 15.0 | <1% | 1% | 10% | 7% | Similar (−0.01) |
| Newport County | 18 | 32 | 57 | 47–68 | 15.2 | <1% | 1% | 9% | 8% | Similar (−0.01) |
| Shrewsbury | 18 | 32 | 58 | 47–68 | 15.4 | <1% | 1% | 9% | 8% | Similar (−0.00) |
| Gillingham | 20 | 32 | 57 | 46–67 | 15.9 | <1% | 1% | 7% | 10% | Similar (−0.02) |
| Cheltenham | 21 | 32 | 57 | 47–67 | 16.0 | <1% | 1% | 6% | 10% | Easier (+0.07) |
| Northampton | 14 | 33 | 56 | 46–67 | 16.1 | <1% | 1% | 7% | 12% | Harder (−0.09) |
| Colchester | 12 | 33 | 55 | 44–65 | 17.3 | <1% | <1% | 5% | 17% | Similar (−0.02) |
| Rotherham | 12 | 32 | 52 | 42–63 | 18.7 | <1% | <1% | 2% | 25% | Harder (−0.08) |
| Crawley Town | 9 | 34 | 51 | 40–61 | 19.6 | 0% | <1% | 2% | 34% | Similar (−0.02) |
| Rochdale | 15 | 32 | 48 | 39–58 | 20.8 | 0% | <1% | 1% | 45% | Harder (−0.06) |
Results against the table
Each row is a team; columns are their opponents in league order, 1st on the left. The number under each score is our performance measure for that game: how much better (+) or worse (−) than an average side in the same fixture.
How their games go
From goal times this season: share of minutes spent ahead, level and behind, and what happens after the first goal. Small samples early in a season; descriptive only, the model doesn't use it.
| Team | Games | Ahead | Level | Behind | Ppg after scoring first (n) | Ppg after conceding first (n) | Leads won | Points from behind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford | 14 | 31% | 50% | 19% | 2.78 (9) | 1.20 (5) | 10 of 11 | 7 from 6 |
| Barnet | 13 | 35% | 45% | 20% | 1.75 (8) | 2.40 (5) | 7 of 12 | 13 from 6 |
| Walsall | 13 | 22% | 67% | 11% | 2.67 (6) | 0.75 (4) | 5 of 6 | 3 from 4 |
| Crewe | 14 | 22% | 53% | 25% | 2.25 (8) | 0.60 (5) | 5 of 8 | 3 from 5 |
| Cheltenham | 14 | 36% | 40% | 24% | 2.17 (6) | 1.00 (8) | 6 of 9 | 8 from 9 |
| Grimsby | 14 | 27% | 47% | 26% | 2.67 (6) | 0.43 (7) | 5 of 8 | 6 from 8 |
| York | 14 | 29% | 50% | 21% | 1.86 (7) | 1.00 (7) | 5 of 9 | 7 from 9 |
| Gillingham | 14 | 21% | 56% | 23% | 2.33 (6) | 0.67 (6) | 5 of 7 | 4 from 6 |
| Accrington | 14 | 32% | 51% | 17% | 1.88 (8) | 0.50 (4) | 4 of 9 | 2 from 5 |
| Chesterfield | 14 | 37% | 35% | 29% | 2.25 (8) | 0.17 (6) | 5 of 8 | 1 from 6 |
| Exeter | 14 | 21% | 64% | 15% | 2.50 (6) | 0.20 (5) | 5 of 6 | 1 from 6 |
| Tranmere | 14 | 33% | 50% | 18% | 1.71 (7) | 1.00 (6) | 4 of 9 | 6 from 7 |
| Swindon | 14 | 22% | 58% | 19% | 2.50 (4) | 0.88 (8) | 5 of 6 | 7 from 8 |
| Newport County | 14 | 27% | 54% | 19% | 1.75 (8) | 0.50 (4) | 4 of 8 | 3 from 7 |
| Shrewsbury | 14 | 15% | 53% | 31% | 3.00 (4) | 0.60 (10) | 5 of 7 | 6 from 10 |
| Fleetwood Town | 14 | 20% | 53% | 27% | 2.33 (6) | 0.29 (7) | 4 of 6 | 3 from 8 |
| Bristol Rvs | 14 | 28% | 39% | 33% | 2.00 (6) | 0.43 (7) | 5 of 7 | 3 from 9 |
| Oldham | 14 | 20% | 41% | 39% | 2.17 (6) | 0.14 (7) | 4 of 6 | 1 from 8 |
| Port Vale | 12 | 24% | 58% | 18% | 2.17 (6) | 0.20 (5) | 4 of 6 | 1 from 6 |
| Rochdale | 14 | 19% | 44% | 37% | 2.60 (5) | 0.13 (8) | 4 of 5 | 2 from 9 |
| Northampton | 13 | 21% | 52% | 28% | 2.20 (5) | 0.29 (7) | 3 of 5 | 2 from 7 |
| Colchester | 13 | 11% | 62% | 28% | 1.17 (6) | 0.67 (6) | 2 of 7 | 6 from 9 |
| Rotherham | 14 | 19% | 49% | 31% | 1.50 (6) | 0.38 (8) | 2 of 7 | 4 from 10 |
| Crawley Town | 12 | 18% | 47% | 35% | 1.40 (5) | 0.29 (7) | 2 of 5 | 2 from 9 |
| League average (all teams) | 328 | 25% | 51% | 25% | 2.13 (152) | 0.59 (152) | 110 of 177 | 101 from 177 |
Points v an average side
| Team | Position | Points | Average side would have | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salford | 1 | 31 | 19.1 | +11.9 |
| Barnet | 2 | 26 | 18.2 | +7.8 |
| Walsall | 3 | 22 | 17.5 | +4.5 |
| Crewe | 4 | 22 | 18.7 | +3.3 |
| Cheltenham | 5 | 21 | 18.4 | +2.6 |
| York | 7 | 20 | 18.8 | +1.2 |
| Gillingham | 8 | 20 | 19.3 | +0.7 |
| Exeter | 11 | 19 | 18.4 | +0.6 |
| Grimsby | 6 | 20 | 20.1 | −0.1 |
| Tranmere | 12 | 19 | 19.2 | −0.2 |
| Chesterfield | 10 | 19 | 19.2 | −0.2 |
| Swindon | 13 | 19 | 19.2 | −0.2 |
| Accrington | 9 | 19 | 19.3 | −0.3 |
| Shrewsbury | 15 | 18 | 19.2 | −1.2 |
| Port Vale | 19 | 15 | 16.2 | −1.2 |
| Newport County | 14 | 18 | 19.2 | −1.2 |
| Fleetwood Town | 16 | 17 | 19.0 | −2.0 |
| Bristol Rvs | 17 | 16 | 18.9 | −2.9 |
| Oldham | 18 | 15 | 19.3 | −4.3 |
| Northampton | 21 | 14 | 18.6 | −4.6 |
| Rochdale | 20 | 15 | 19.7 | −4.7 |
| Colchester | 22 | 12 | 18.0 | −6.0 |
| Crawley Town | 24 | 9 | 16.6 | −7.6 |
| Rotherham | 23 | 12 | 20.1 | −8.1 |
Fixtures
Every remaining league game. Chances are today's view from the current ratings: games more than a week away will move as results come in. Full previews open about a week before.
November 2026 · 38 games
Saturday 14 November
Saturday 21 November
Tuesday 24 November
Saturday 28 November
December 2026 · 61 games
Tuesday 1 December
Saturday 12 December
Tuesday 15 December
Thursday 17 December
Saturday 19 December
Saturday 26 December
Tuesday 29 December
January 2027 · 72 games
Friday 1 January
Saturday 2 January
Saturday 9 January
Saturday 16 January
Tuesday 19 January
Saturday 23 January
Saturday 30 January
February 2027 · 60 games
Saturday 6 February
Tuesday 9 February
Saturday 13 February
Saturday 20 February
Saturday 27 February
March 2027 · 60 games
Saturday 6 March
Saturday 13 March
Saturday 20 March
Friday 26 March
Monday 29 March
April 2027 · 72 games
Saturday 3 April
Saturday 10 April
Tuesday 13 April
Saturday 17 April
Saturday 24 April
Tuesday 27 April
May 2027 · 24 games
Saturday 1 May
Saturday 8 May