Belgian Pro League · Fri 6 Nov, 19:45 Logged before kick-off

Standard 3-0 Beveren

My shortlist

Standard the pick at home to Beveren

The model's view

63%

21%

15%

Standard win 63% confidence: high Shortlist

Model's expected goals: Standard 2.0, Beveren 0.8.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 63%.

Standard are 9th with 12 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Beveren are 13th with 10 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 5 sides both have played: Standard took 7 points from 5 games, Beveren 4 from 5; on performance Standard were 0.6 goals a game better.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Standard have gone 5 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 9 · performance rank 11 As it looks

Points per game: 1.20 overall, 1.60 at home, 0.80 away. Points v an average side: −2.8.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
5 Sept	Antwerp (H)	1-0	+2.20
12 Sept	Westerlo (A)	2-4	−0.17
18 Sept	Gent (A)	1-2	+0.31
11 Oct	Charleroi (H)	0-1	−0.01
25 Oct	Genk (A)	1-2	−1.15
31 Oct	Kortrijk (H)	1-1	−1.33

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 13 · performance rank 13 As it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 1.80 at home, 0.20 away. Points v an average side: −3.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
6 Sept	Oud-Heverlee Leuven (H)	3-0	+1.02
12 Sept	St Truiden (H)	2-0	+1.23
20 Sept	Kortrijk (A)	0-1	−2.41
9 Oct	Lommel SK (H)	1-3	−1.16
24 Oct	Westerlo (A)	4-4	+0.19
31 Oct	St. Gilloise (H)	1-2	+1.04

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Standard: 7 pts from 5, performance −0.24. Beveren: 4 pts from 5, performance −0.83.

Standard:

Beveren: