Bundesliga · Fri 6 Nov, 19:30 Logged before kick-off

Hamburg 3-1 M'gladbach

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Hamburg the pick at home to M'gladbach

The model's view

43%

28%

30%

Hamburg win 43% confidence: low

Model's expected goals: Hamburg 1.5, M'gladbach 1.2.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 43%.

Hamburg are 15th with 9 points from 8 games. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
M'gladbach are 18th with 4 points from 8 games, but on performances they rank 12th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 7 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Hamburg took 9 points from 6 games, M'gladbach 4 from 6; on performance M'gladbach were 0.4 goals a game better.
In their favour: Hamburg take 2.0 points a game at home.

Position 15 · performance rank 15 As it looks

Points per game: 1.13 overall, 2.00 at home, 0.60 away. Points v an average side: −1.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	RB Leipzig (A)	0-5	−0.50
19 Sept	FC Koln (H)	2-1	−0.48
10 Oct	Hoffenheim (A)	3-2	+0.74
17 Oct	Stuttgart (H)	1-0	−0.59
24 Oct	Paderborn (A)	0-1	−1.28
1 Nov	Ein Frankfurt (A)	1-3	−0.66

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 18 · performance rank 12 Better than it looks

Points per game: 0.50 overall, 0.25 at home, 0.75 away. Points v an average side: −7.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Freiburg (A)	0-5	−2.15
19 Sept	Mainz (H)	3-4	+0.15
11 Oct	FC Koln (A)	1-2	−0.04
18 Oct	Hoffenheim (H)	1-2	−1.66
23 Oct	Stuttgart (A)	3-2	+1.91
31 Oct	Paderborn (H)	0-0	−0.56

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Hamburg: 9 pts from 6, performance −0.82. M'gladbach: 4 pts from 6, performance −0.40.

Hamburg:

M'gladbach: