Championship · Fri 6 Nov, 20:00 Logged before kick-off

Derby 3-1 Bolton

My shortlist

Derby the pick at home to Bolton

The model's view

40%

29%

32%

Derby win 40% confidence: low

Model's expected goals: Derby 1.4, Bolton 1.2.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 40%.

Derby are 23rd with 7 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 12 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.2 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Bolton are 17th with 17 points from 14 games. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Derby took 2 points from 8 games, Bolton 10 from 8; on performance Bolton were 1.0 goals a game better.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Derby have gone 10 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 23 · performance rank 24 As it looks

Points per game: 0.50 overall, 0.29 at home, 0.71 away. Points v an average side: −12.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Wrexham (H)	1-1	−1.24
14 Oct	QPR (A)	1-4	−0.48
17 Oct	Stoke (H)	0-1	−0.08
24 Oct	Sheffield United (A)	1-1	−1.63
31 Oct	Millwall (A)	1-4	−2.12
3 Nov	Norwich (H)	0-4	−1.87

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 17 · performance rank 20 As it looks

Points per game: 1.21 overall, 0.86 at home, 1.57 away. Points v an average side: −1.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Stoke (H)	1-2	+1.93
13 Oct	Wolves (A)	3-1	−0.06
17 Oct	Southampton (A)	0-0	−0.01
23 Oct	Middlesbrough (H)	1-5	−3.04
31 Oct	Bristol City (H)	2-3	−2.23
3 Nov	Charlton (A)	1-0	−0.23

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Derby: 2 pts from 8, performance −1.23. Bolton: 10 pts from 8, performance −0.26.

Derby:

Bolton: