Eredivisie · Fri 6 Nov, 19:00 Logged before kick-off

Willem II 1-1 Zwolle

My shortlist

Zwolle the pick away at Willem II

The model's view

28%

45%

Zwolle win 45% confidence: low

Model's expected goals: Willem II 1.3, Zwolle 1.8.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 28%.

Willem II are 18th with 2 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 12 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.1 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Zwolle are 14th with 11 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.1 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 7 sides both have played: Willem II took 1 points from 7 games, Zwolle 8 from 7; on performance Zwolle were 0.6 goals a game better.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Willem II have gone 11 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 18 · performance rank 16 As it looks

Points per game: 0.18 overall, 0.20 at home, 0.17 away. Points v an average side: −12.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
15 Sept	Ajax (A)	1-5	−0.91
19 Sept	For Sittard (H)	0-1	−1.12
11 Oct	Utrecht (A)	1-3	−0.33
17 Oct	Sparta Rotterdam (A)	2-3	−2.51
24 Oct	Cambuur (H)	1-6	−2.38
31 Oct	PSV Eindhoven (A)	0-7	+0.74

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 14 · performance rank 15 As it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 1.00 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −3.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Feyenoord (H)	0-7	−2.70
18 Sept	Groningen (A)	0-3	−0.51
11 Oct	Cambuur (H)	0-1	−1.50
18 Oct	Go Ahead Eagles (H)	4-1	−1.24
24 Oct	Utrecht (A)	1-1	−0.27
1 Nov	Den Haag (H)	1-0	−0.37

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Willem II: 1 pts from 7, performance −1.09. Zwolle: 8 pts from 7, performance −0.49.

Willem II:

Zwolle: