La Liga · Fri 6 Nov, 20:00 Logged before kick-off

Sevilla 0-0 Alaves

My shortlist

Sevilla the pick at home to Alaves

The model's view

46%

28%

26%

Sevilla win 46% confidence: medium

Model's expected goals: Sevilla 1.5, Alaves 1.1.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 28%.

Sevilla are 6th with 17 points from 11 games, but on performances they rank only 11th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Alaves are 11th with 12 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 7 sides both have played: Sevilla took 12 points from 7 games, Alaves 8 from 7; on performance Alaves were 0.5 goals a game better.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Alaves have gone 7 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 6 · performance rank 11 Flattered

Points per game: 1.54 overall, 1.80 at home, 1.33 away. Points v an average side: +3.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
16 Sept	La Coruna (A)	1-0	+0.59
19 Sept	Barcelona (H)	1-3	−1.83
12 Oct	Levante (A)	3-3	+0.80
18 Oct	Real Madrid (A)	1-4	−0.13
26 Oct	Osasuna (H)	2-0	−0.17
1 Nov	Getafe (A)	1-3	−0.85

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 11 · performance rank 8 As it looks

Points per game: 1.09 overall, 1.67 at home, 0.40 away. Points v an average side: −3.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
15 Sept	Valencia (H)	0-1	−0.18
19 Sept	Ath Bilbao (A)	0-0	−1.12
10 Oct	Ath Madrid (H)	1-2	−0.53
18 Oct	Celta (A)	1-2	+0.46
23 Oct	Malaga (H)	1-1	+0.20
31 Oct	Barcelona (A)	1-6	−0.49

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Sevilla: 12 pts from 7, performance −0.41. Alaves: 8 pts from 7, performance +0.07.

Sevilla:

Alaves: