Ligue 1 · Fri 6 Nov, 19:45 Logged before kick-off

Toulouse 3-1 Strasbourg

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Toulouse the pick at home to Strasbourg

The model's view

41%

30%

29%

Toulouse win 41% confidence: low

Model's expected goals: Toulouse 1.5, Strasbourg 1.3.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 41%.

Toulouse are 12th with 10 points from 9 games, but on performances they rank 5th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 2 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Strasbourg are 13th with 10 points from 9 games. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 3 sides both have played: Toulouse took 2 points from 3 games, Strasbourg 4 from 3; on performance Toulouse were 1.0 goals a game better.
Signal: Toulouse, unlucky last defeat (0-2 v Marseille, despite creating more).
▲ Toulouse: unlucky last defeat (0-2 v Marseille, despite creating more) [tested signal]

Position 12 · performance rank 5 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.11 overall, 1.00 at home, 1.20 away. Points v an average side: −2.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Lorient (A)	2-2	+0.89
19 Sept	Le Havre (H)	3-2	−0.86
10 Oct	Monaco (A)	2-2	+0.83
16 Oct	Le Mans (A)	3-0	+0.62
25 Oct	Troyes (H)	0-0	−0.69
1 Nov	Marseille (A)	0-2	+1.21

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 13 · performance rank 12 As it looks

Points per game: 1.11 overall, 1.75 at home, 0.60 away. Points v an average side: −1.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Monaco (H)	1-1	+0.05
19 Sept	Paris FC (A)	1-2	−0.49
11 Oct	Nice (A)	1-2	−0.70
17 Oct	Paris SG (H)	1-3	−0.47
25 Oct	Rennes (A)	0-3	−0.49
1 Nov	Auxerre (H)	5-1	+1.83

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Toulouse: 2 pts from 3, performance +0.45. Strasbourg: 4 pts from 3, performance −0.59.

Toulouse:

Strasbourg: