Premier League · Fri 6 Nov, 20:00 Logged before kick-off

Everton 3-1 Coventry

My shortlist

Everton the pick at home to Coventry

The model's view

54%

26%

21%

Everton win 54% confidence: medium

Model's expected goals: Everton 1.3, Coventry 0.8.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 54%.

Everton are 7th with 13 points from 9 games, but on performances they rank only 12th: the results are flattering them. Over their last six they have been about average.
Coventry are 16th with 9 points from 9 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Against the 4 sides both have played: Everton took 5 points from 4 games, Coventry 3 from 4; on performance Everton were 0.7 goals a game better.

Position 7 · performance rank 12 Flattered

Points per game: 1.44 overall, 1.75 at home, 1.20 away. Points v an average side: +0.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Tottenham (A)	0-0	+0.40
19 Sept	Ipswich (H)	1-0	+0.16
11 Oct	Hull (A)	2-2	−0.25
17 Oct	Chelsea (H)	0-2	−1.13
24 Oct	Arsenal (A)	0-2	−0.54
2 Nov	Newcastle (A)	1-0	+0.83

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 16 · performance rank 18 As it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 1.20 at home, 0.75 away. Points v an average side: −3.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Brighton (H)	0-5	−1.40
19 Sept	Nott'm Forest (A)	1-0	−0.22
12 Oct	Newcastle (H)	4-1	−0.60
19 Oct	Tottenham (A)	1-3	−0.07
24 Oct	Fulham (H)	0-1	−0.25
31 Oct	Sunderland (H)	3-1	−1.54

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Everton: 5 pts from 4, performance +0.11. Coventry: 3 pts from 4, performance −0.56.

Everton:

Coventry: