Primeira Liga · Fri 6 Nov, 20:45 Logged before kick-off

Famalicao 1-0 Arouca

My shortlist

Famalicao the pick at home to Arouca

The model's view

43%

30%

27%

Famalicao win 43% confidence: low

Model's expected goals: Famalicao 1.3, Arouca 1.0.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 43%.

Famalicao are 11th with 10 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Arouca are 5th with 20 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Against the 7 sides both have played: Famalicao took 6 points from 7 games, Arouca 14 from 7; on performance Arouca were 1.0 goals a game better.
The caution: Famalicao take 0.5 points a game at home, against 1.0 overall.

Position 11 · performance rank 14 As it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 0.50 at home, 1.33 away. Points v an average side: −4.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
5 Sept	Estrela (A)	2-2	+0.69
13 Sept	Sp Lisbon (H)	1-1	−0.69
19 Sept	Nacional (A)	4-0	+0.08
12 Oct	Alverca (H)	1-4	−3.02
25 Oct	Rio Ave (A)	4-0	+0.58
1 Nov	Sp Braga (A)	0-3	−0.46

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 5 · performance rank 9 As it looks

Points per game: 2.00 overall, 2.40 at home, 1.60 away. Points v an average side: +6.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
7 Sept	Estoril (A)	0-0	+0.23
13 Sept	Santa Clara (H)	1-2	−0.60
19 Sept	Sp Lisbon (A)	2-2	+2.64
11 Oct	Estrela (H)	1-0	−1.42
24 Oct	Alverca (A)	1-0	+1.71
1 Nov	Nacional (H)	1-0	−0.34

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Famalicao: 6 pts from 7, performance −0.69. Arouca: 14 pts from 7, performance +0.33.

Famalicao:

Arouca: