Scottish Championship · Fri 6 Nov, 19:30 Logged before kick-off

Raith Rvs 0-0 Dunfermline

My shortlist

Raith Rvs the pick at home to Dunfermline

The model's view

40%

29%

31%

Raith Rvs win 40% confidence: low

Model's expected goals: Raith Rvs 1.2, Dunfermline 1.0.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 29%.

Raith Rvs are 2nd with 24 points from 13 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Dunfermline are 3rd with 24 points from 13 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.1 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Raith Rvs took 24 points from 12 games, Dunfermline 21 from 12; on performance Raith Rvs were 0.3 goals a game better.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Dunfermline are unbeaten in 10. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 2 · performance rank 2 As it looks

Points per game: 1.85 overall, 1.67 at home, 2.00 away. Points v an average side: +5.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
25 Sept	Livingston (H)	0-2	−1.73
3 Oct	Morton (A)	2-1	+0.55
10 Oct	Queens Park (H)	2-0	+1.32
17 Oct	Stenhousemuir (A)	1-1	+0.28
24 Oct	Inverness C (H)	0-2	−1.98
31 Oct	Arbroath (A)	4-0	+3.81

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 3 · performance rank 1 As it looks

Points per game: 1.85 overall, 2.00 at home, 1.71 away. Points v an average side: +6.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Ayr (A)	1-1	−0.01
17 Oct	Livingston (H)	0-0	+0.23
20 Oct	Partick (H)	1-1	+0.23
24 Oct	Queens Park (A)	1-0	+0.65
27 Oct	Stenhousemuir (A)	1-0	+1.20
31 Oct	Inverness C (H)	5-1	+4.10

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Raith Rvs: 24 pts from 12, performance +0.89. Dunfermline: 21 pts from 12, performance +0.60.

Raith Rvs:

Dunfermline: