Serie A · Fri 6 Nov, 19:45 Logged before kick-off

Venezia 2-1 Udinese

My shortlist

Udinese the pick away at Venezia

The model's view

29%

31%

40%

Udinese win 40% confidence: low

Model's expected goals: Venezia 1.1, Udinese 1.3.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 29%.

Venezia are 20th with 3 points from 10 games, but on performances they rank 12th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 9 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Udinese are 19th with 5 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 9 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.4 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 5 sides both have played: Venezia took 0 points from 5 games, Udinese 1 from 5; on performance Venezia were 1.1 goals a game better.
In their favour: Udinese take 1.0 points a game away.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Udinese have gone 8 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 20 · performance rank 12 Better than it looks

Points per game: 0.30 overall, 0.60 at home, 0.00 away. Points v an average side: −9.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Lazio (H)	0-2	+0.24
12 Oct	Atalanta (A)	1-3	+0.87
17 Oct	Napoli (H)	1-0	−1.03
25 Oct	Genoa (A)	0-1	+1.52
28 Oct	Inter (H)	0-2	+0.26
1 Nov	Como (A)	0-1	−0.47

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 19 · performance rank 20 As it looks

Points per game: 0.50 overall, 0.17 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −9.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
19 Sept	Cagliari (H)	0-1	+0.67
12 Oct	Torino (A)	1-2	−1.86
18 Oct	Lecce (H)	0-3	−3.71
25 Oct	Milan (H)	0-2	−2.91
28 Oct	Parma (A)	0-0	−0.03
31 Oct	Roma (H)	2-5	−0.51

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Venezia: 0 pts from 5, performance −0.45. Udinese: 1 pts from 5, performance −1.56.

Venezia:

Udinese: