Belgian Pro League · Sat 7 Nov, 19:45 Logged before kick-off

Antwerp 2-2 Lommel SK

My shortlist

Antwerp the pick at home to Lommel SK

The model's view

39%

28%

33%

Antwerp win 39% confidence: low

Early prediction: 39% / 28% / 33%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 28%.

Antwerp are 12th with 10 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Lommel SK are 7th with 15 points from 10 games, but on performances they rank only 15th: the results are flattering them. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Against the 7 sides both have played: Antwerp took 6 points from 7 games, Lommel SK 10 from 7; on performance Lommel SK were 0.4 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 12 · performance rank 13 As it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 1.40 at home, 0.60 away. Points v an average side: −2.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
5 Sept	Standard (A)	0-1	−2.30
13 Sept	Club Brugge (A)	1-3	+1.17
20 Sept	St. Gilloise (H)	0-2	−1.70
11 Oct	Westerlo (A)	1-5	−1.22
24 Oct	Charleroi (H)	3-0	−0.28
1 Nov	Cercle Brugge (A)	1-2	+1.61

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 7 · performance rank 15 Flattered

Points per game: 1.50 overall, 1.40 at home, 1.60 away. Points v an average side: +1.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
4 Sept	Club Brugge (H)	0-1	+1.05
12 Sept	St. Gilloise (A)	0-5	−1.04
19 Sept	Mechelen (H)	0-0	−1.76
9 Oct	Beveren (A)	3-1	−0.03
24 Oct	Oud-Heverlee Leuven (A)	2-2	−2.68
1 Nov	Gent (H)	2-0	+0.25

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Antwerp: 6 pts from 7, performance −0.48. Lommel SK: 10 pts from 7, performance −0.04.

Antwerp: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Thibo Somers, Arthur Vermeeren, Rein Van Helden, Xander Dierckx. (confirmed XI)

Lommel SK: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Tom Reyners. (confirmed XI)