Belgian Pro League · Sat 7 Nov, 17:15 Logged before kick-off

Oud-Heverlee Leuven 2-0 Mechelen

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Oud-Heverlee Leuven the pick at home to Mechelen

The model's view

42%

28%

30%

Oud-Heverlee Leuven win 42% confidence: low

Early prediction: 42% / 28% / 30%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 42%.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven are 14th with 9 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Mechelen are 10th with 12 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 2 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Oud-Heverlee Leuven took 7 points from 6 games, Mechelen 6 from 6; on performance there was little between them.
Both sides at their usual strength.
Warning: Oud-Heverlee Leuven, smash-and-grab last win (2-1 v St Truiden, despite creating less).
▼ Oud-Heverlee Leuven: smash-and-grab last win (2-1 v St Truiden, despite creating less) [tested signal]

Position 14 · performance rank 12 As it looks

Points per game: 0.90 overall, 1.00 at home, 0.80 away. Points v an average side: −4.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
6 Sept	Beveren (A)	0-3	−2.98
12 Sept	Cercle Brugge (H)	1-1	−1.22
19 Sept	RAAL La Louviere (H)	2-0	−0.41
11 Oct	St. Gilloise (A)	1-1	+1.91
24 Oct	Lommel SK (H)	2-2	+2.12
1 Nov	St Truiden (A)	2-1	−1.60

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 10 · performance rank 14 As it looks

Points per game: 1.20 overall, 1.40 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −2.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
5 Sept	Westerlo (H)	0-4	−2.61
11 Sept	Anderlecht (H)	0-1	−0.01
19 Sept	Lommel SK (A)	0-0	+0.97
11 Oct	St Truiden (H)	4-3	−0.76
31 Oct	Genk (H)	1-0	−1.26
4 Nov	Kortrijk (A)	3-1	−0.32

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven: 7 pts from 6, performance −0.19. Mechelen: 6 pts from 6, performance −0.11.

Oud-Heverlee Leuven: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Noë Dussenne. (confirmed XI)

Mechelen: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Nacho Miras, Luc Marijnissen, Bouke Boersma. (confirmed XI)