Belgian Pro League · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Westerlo 1-5 Charleroi

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Westerlo v Charleroi: too close to call

The model's view

35%

28%

37%

Charleroi win 37% confidence: coin flip

Early prediction: 35% / 28% / 37%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 37%.

Westerlo are 9th with 14 points from 10 games. Over their last six they have been about average.
Charleroi are 4th with 24 points from 10 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 10 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Westerlo took 10 points from 6 games, Charleroi 12 from 6; on performance Charleroi were 0.5 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 9 · performance rank 11 As it looks

Points per game: 1.40 overall, 1.60 at home, 1.20 away. Points v an average side: +0.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
5 Sept	Mechelen (A)	4-0	+1.76
12 Sept	Standard (H)	4-2	+0.06
20 Sept	St Truiden (A)	2-0	+0.60
11 Oct	Antwerp (H)	5-1	+1.10
24 Oct	Beveren (H)	4-4	−1.15
31 Oct	Anderlecht (A)	1-4	−1.49

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 4 · performance rank 5 As it looks

Points per game: 2.40 overall, 2.40 at home, 2.40 away. Points v an average side: +9.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
5 Sept	St. Gilloise (H)	2-3	+1.95
13 Sept	Waregem (A)	1-0	+1.13
19 Sept	Cercle Brugge (H)	3-2	−0.59
11 Oct	Standard (A)	1-0	+0.34
24 Oct	Antwerp (A)	0-3	+0.37
1 Nov	RAAL La Louviere (H)	5-2	+0.37

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Westerlo: 10 pts from 6, performance +0.42. Charleroi: 12 pts from 6, performance +0.89.

Westerlo: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Dylan Ourega, Amando Lapage. (confirmed XI)

Charleroi: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Mardochee Nzita, Cheick Keita. (confirmed XI)