Bundesliga · Sat 7 Nov, 14:30 Logged before kick-off

Dortmund 2-1 Elversberg

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Dortmund the pick at home to Elversberg

The model's view

67%

20%

13%

Dortmund win 67% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 67% / 20% / 13%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 67%.

Dortmund are 2nd with 18 points from 8 games, but on performances they rank only 7th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 7 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Elversberg are 7th with 13 points from 8 games, but on performances they rank only 15th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 2 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Against the 2 sides both have played: Dortmund took 2 points from 2 games, Elversberg 0 from 2; on performance Dortmund were 0.4 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Dortmund are unbeaten in 8. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 2 · performance rank 7 Flattered

Points per game: 2.25 overall, 2.50 at home, 2.00 away. Points v an average side: +7.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Paderborn (H)	3-0	+0.34
19 Sept	Stuttgart (A)	1-0	+1.38
9 Oct	Werder Bremen (H)	2-2	+0.83
17 Oct	Union Berlin (A)	0-0	+0.21
24 Oct	Ein Frankfurt (H)	1-0	+0.10
31 Oct	Bayern Munich (A)	2-2	−1.35

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 7 · performance rank 15 Flattered

Points per game: 1.63 overall, 2.25 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: +2.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Bayern Munich (H)	1-2	−0.82
20 Sept	Schalke 04 (A)	0-0	−0.39
10 Oct	Union Berlin (A)	0-1	−1.02
17 Oct	Augsburg (H)	4-3	−0.60
24 Oct	RB Leipzig (A)	0-4	−1.20
30 Oct	Mainz (H)	4-1	−0.55

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Dortmund: 2 pts from 2, performance −0.57. Elversberg: 0 pts from 2, performance −0.92.

Dortmund	Opponent	Elversberg
2-2 A (−1.3)	1. Bayern Munich	1-2 H (−0.8)
0-0 A (+0.2)	16. Union Berlin	0-1 A (−1.0)

Dortmund: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Serhou Guirassy, Julian Ryerson, Maximilian Beier, Ethan Nwaneri. (confirmed XI)

Elversberg: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Jan Gyamerah, Cole Campbell. (confirmed XI)