Bundesliga · Sat 7 Nov, 14:30 Logged before kick-off

Mainz 1-2 Bayern Munich

My shortlist

Bayern Munich the pick away at Mainz

The model's view

15%

21%

64%

Bayern Munich win 64% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 15% / 21% / 64%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 64%.

Mainz are 10th with 10 points from 8 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 2 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Bayern Munich are 1st with 18 points from 8 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 7 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 2.8 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 2 sides both have played: Mainz took 3 points from 2 games, Bayern Munich 4 from 2; on performance Bayern Munich were 0.9 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Bayern Munich are unbeaten in 8. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 10 · performance rank 6 As it looks

Points per game: 1.25 overall, 0.25 at home, 2.25 away. Points v an average side: −2.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Ein Frankfurt (H)	1-3	−0.39
19 Sept	M'gladbach (A)	4-3	−0.53
10 Oct	Leverkusen (H)	3-4	+1.41
17 Oct	Schalke 04 (A)	1-0	+1.17
24 Oct	Werder Bremen (H)	2-3	−1.44
30 Oct	Elversberg (A)	1-4	+0.28

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 1 · performance rank 1 As it looks

Points per game: 2.25 overall, 2.50 at home, 2.00 away. Points v an average side: +6.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Elversberg (A)	2-1	+2.03
18 Sept	Union Berlin (H)	7-0	+2.79
10 Oct	Augsburg (A)	2-2	+2.76
17 Oct	RB Leipzig (H)	6-1	+2.76
25 Oct	Freiburg (A)	3-1	+2.33
31 Oct	Dortmund (H)	2-2	+3.97

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Mainz: 3 pts from 2, performance +0.72. Bayern Munich: 4 pts from 2, performance +1.60.

Mainz	Opponent	Bayern Munich
1-4 A (+0.3)	7. Elversberg	2-1 A (+2.0)
1-0 A (+1.2)	17. Schalke 04	0-0 A (+1.2)

Mainz: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Stefan Posch, Phillipp Mwene, Phillip Tietz, Alexander Schwolow. (confirmed XI)

Bayern Munich: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Alphonso Davies, Luis Díaz, Ismael Saibari. (confirmed XI)