Bundesliga · Sat 7 Nov, 14:30 Logged before kick-off

Paderborn 2-2 Ein Frankfurt

My shortlist

Ein Frankfurt the pick away at Paderborn

The model's view

30%

28%

42%

Ein Frankfurt win 42% confidence: low

Early prediction: 30% / 28% / 42%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 28%.

Paderborn are 15th with 9 points from 8 games. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Ein Frankfurt are 9th with 11 points from 8 games. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 4 sides both have played: Paderborn took 4 points from 4 games, Ein Frankfurt 7 from 4; on performance Ein Frankfurt were 0.2 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 15 · performance rank 14 As it looks

Points per game: 1.13 overall, 1.50 at home, 0.75 away. Points v an average side: −1.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Dortmund (A)	0-3	−0.33
20 Sept	Hoffenheim (H)	3-1	−1.00
10 Oct	Stuttgart (H)	0-2	−0.33
17 Oct	Werder Bremen (A)	2-2	−1.96
24 Oct	Hamburg (H)	1-0	+0.27
31 Oct	M'gladbach (A)	0-0	−0.39

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 9 · performance rank 10 As it looks

Points per game: 1.38 overall, 1.75 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: +0.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Mainz (A)	3-1	+0.32
19 Sept	Freiburg (H)	2-2	−1.17
10 Oct	RB Leipzig (A)	0-6	−1.72
16 Oct	FC Koln (H)	1-0	+0.43
24 Oct	Dortmund (A)	0-1	+0.31
1 Nov	Hamburg (H)	3-1	+0.21

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Paderborn: 4 pts from 4, performance −0.31. Ein Frankfurt: 7 pts from 4, performance −0.08.

Paderborn: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Marvin Pieringer, Laurin Ulrich. (confirmed XI)

Ein Frankfurt: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Younes Ebnoutalib, Keita Kosugi. (confirmed XI)