Bundesliga · Sat 7 Nov, 14:30 Logged before kick-off

RB Leipzig 5-2 Augsburg

My shortlist

RB Leipzig the pick at home to Augsburg

The model's view

62%

22%

16%

RB Leipzig win 62% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 62% / 22% / 16%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 62%.

RB Leipzig are 4th with 15 points from 8 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.0 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Augsburg are 11th with 9 points from 8 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 2 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: RB Leipzig took 9 points from 6 games, Augsburg 8 from 6; on performance RB Leipzig were 1.7 goals a game better.
In their favour: RB Leipzig take 3.0 points a game at home.
Both sides at their usual strength.
Warning: Augsburg, unlucky last defeat (1-2 v Freiburg, despite creating more).
▲ Augsburg: unlucky last defeat (1-2 v Freiburg, despite creating more) [tested signal]

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Augsburg have gone 6 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 4 · performance rank 2 As it looks

Points per game: 1.88 overall, 3.00 at home, 0.75 away. Points v an average side: +3.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Hamburg (H)	5-0	+0.64
20 Sept	Leverkusen (A)	0-2	−0.45
10 Oct	Ein Frankfurt (H)	6-0	+2.10
17 Oct	Bayern Munich (A)	1-6	−0.42
24 Oct	Elversberg (H)	4-0	+1.52
31 Oct	Schalke 04 (A)	2-0	+2.84

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 11 · performance rank 13 As it looks

Points per game: 1.13 overall, 1.20 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −2.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Leverkusen (H)	2-2	−1.32
19 Sept	Werder Bremen (A)	2-3	−1.64
10 Oct	Bayern Munich (H)	2-2	−1.39
17 Oct	Elversberg (A)	3-4	+0.23
24 Oct	Union Berlin (H)	1-1	−0.02
31 Oct	Freiburg (H)	1-2	−0.26

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

RB Leipzig: 9 pts from 6, performance +1.01. Augsburg: 8 pts from 6, performance −0.67.

RB Leipzig: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Antonio Nusa. (confirmed XI)

Augsburg: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Marius Wolf, Michael Gregoritsch, Calvin Brackelmann, Noahkai Banks. (confirmed XI)