Bundesliga · Sat 7 Nov, 17:30 Logged before kick-off

Stuttgart 1-0 Werder Bremen

My shortlist

Stuttgart the pick at home to Werder Bremen

The model's view

55%

25%

20%

Stuttgart win 55% confidence: medium ShortlistLine-ups: watch

Early prediction: 55% / 25% / 20%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 55%.

Stuttgart are 12th with 9 points from 8 games. Over their last six they have been about average.
Werder Bremen are 5th with 15 points from 8 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 4 sides both have played: Stuttgart took 6 points from 4 games, Werder Bremen 6 from 4; on performance there was little between them.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Werder Bremen are unbeaten in 7. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 12 · performance rank 9 As it looks

Points per game: 1.13 overall, 1.00 at home, 1.20 away. Points v an average side: −1.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Hoffenheim (A)	1-2	−0.18
19 Sept	Dortmund (H)	0-1	−0.18
10 Oct	Paderborn (A)	2-0	+0.17
17 Oct	Hamburg (A)	0-1	+0.69
23 Oct	M'gladbach (H)	2-3	−1.98
31 Oct	Leverkusen (A)	4-2	+1.63

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 5 · performance rank 5 As it looks

Points per game: 1.88 overall, 2.50 at home, 1.25 away. Points v an average side: +4.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	FC Koln (A)	1-1	−0.41
19 Sept	Augsburg (H)	3-2	+1.25
9 Oct	Dortmund (A)	2-2	−0.31
17 Oct	Paderborn (H)	2-2	+1.14
24 Oct	Mainz (A)	3-2	+1.38
31 Oct	Hoffenheim (H)	2-0	+0.05

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Stuttgart: 6 pts from 4, performance −0.01. Werder Bremen: 6 pts from 4, performance +0.12.

Stuttgart: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Josha Vagnoman, Fabian Bredlow, Ermedin Demirović, Angelo Stiller, Finn Jeltsch. (confirmed XI)

Werder Bremen: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Chuki. (confirmed XI)