Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Birmingham 2-1 Swansea

My shortlist

Birmingham the pick at home to Swansea

The model's view

50%

27%

24%

Birmingham win 50% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 50% / 27% / 24%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 50%.

Birmingham are 4th with 26 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank only 9th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 8 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Swansea are 6th with 26 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 8 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Birmingham took 17 points from 8 games, Swansea 14 from 8; on performance Birmingham were 0.6 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 4 · performance rank 9 Flattered

Points per game: 1.86 overall, 1.86 at home, 1.86 away. Points v an average side: +7.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	West Brom (A)	1-0	+1.75
13 Oct	Preston (H)	4-0	+1.11
17 Oct	QPR (H)	3-0	−0.12
24 Oct	Cardiff (A)	0-1	−1.67
31 Oct	Lincoln (A)	3-1	+0.61
3 Nov	Millwall (H)	3-0	−0.14

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 6 · performance rank 7 As it looks

Points per game: 1.86 overall, 2.00 at home, 1.71 away. Points v an average side: +7.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Norwich (H)	2-1	+1.57
13 Oct	Millwall (A)	1-0	+1.18
17 Oct	West Ham (H)	0-1	+0.47
24 Oct	QPR (A)	0-5	−3.29
31 Oct	Blackburn (H)	4-0	+1.92
3 Nov	Portsmouth (A)	1-3	+1.08

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Birmingham: 17 pts from 8, performance +0.67. Swansea: 14 pts from 8, performance +0.04.

Birmingham: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Bright Osayi-Samuel, Carlos Vicente, James Beadle, August Priske. (confirmed XI)

Swansea: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Stephen Welsh, Elijah Just, Adam Idah, Melker Widell, Joseph Opoku. (confirmed XI)