Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Blackburn 2-1 West Ham

My shortlist

West Ham the pick away at Blackburn

The model's view

19%

24%

57%

West Ham win 57% confidence: medium Shortlist

Early prediction: 19% / 24% / 57%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 19%.

Blackburn are 14th with 18 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank only 23rd: the results are flattering them. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.0 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
West Ham are 8th with 23 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank 3rd: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Blackburn took 11 points from 8 games, West Ham 15 from 8; on performance West Ham were 1.8 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 14 · performance rank 23 Flattered

Points per game: 1.29 overall, 1.71 at home, 0.86 away. Points v an average side: −1.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Cardiff (H)	2-1	+1.09
13 Oct	Bristol City (A)	1-0	−1.57
17 Oct	West Brom (A)	2-3	−3.13
24 Oct	Wrexham (H)	2-0	−0.57
31 Oct	Swansea (A)	0-4	−2.00
3 Nov	Stoke (H)	1-2	+0.19

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 8 · performance rank 3 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.64 overall, 1.43 at home, 1.86 away. Points v an average side: +4.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
9 Oct	QPR (H)	1-1	+0.03
14 Oct	Lincoln (A)	6-0	+3.03
17 Oct	Swansea (A)	1-0	+0.44
24 Oct	Southampton (H)	2-3	+0.07
31 Oct	West Brom (H)	1-3	−1.33
4 Nov	Cardiff (A)	3-3	+1.77

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Blackburn: 11 pts from 8, performance −0.95. West Ham: 15 pts from 8, performance +0.88.

Blackburn: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Ryoya Morishita, Ryan Alebiosu, Tom Atcheson. (confirmed XI)

West Ham: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Kyle Walker-Peters, Manor Solomon, Valentín Castellanos, Morato. (confirmed XI)