Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 12:30 Logged before kick-off
Bristol City v Norwich: too close to call
Norwich win 37% confidence: coin flip
Early prediction: 35% / 29% / 37%; line-ups didn't change it.
✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 37%.
Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.
Position 15 · performance rank 11 As it looks
Points per game: 1.29 overall, 0.86 at home, 1.71 away. Points v an average side: −1.5.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Perf. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Charlton (A) | 1-1 | −0.47 |
| 13 Oct | Blackburn (H) | 0-1 | +1.40 |
| 17 Oct | Sheffield United (H) | 0-1 | −1.06 |
| 24 Oct | Stoke (A) | 0-0 | −0.25 |
| 31 Oct | Bolton (A) | 3-2 | +2.03 |
| 4 Nov | Wolves (H) | 1-2 | −1.41 |
Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.
Position 12 · performance rank 12 As it looks
Points per game: 1.29 overall, 1.29 at home, 1.29 away. Points v an average side: −1.3.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Perf. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct | Swansea (A) | 1-2 | −1.38 |
| 14 Oct | Southampton (H) | 0-1 | −1.14 |
| 17 Oct | Portsmouth (H) | 0-1 | −1.28 |
| 24 Oct | Charlton (A) | 3-1 | +0.91 |
| 31 Oct | Watford (H) | 3-2 | −0.56 |
| 3 Nov | Derby (A) | 4-0 | +1.69 |
Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.
Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.
Bristol City: 15 pts from 10, performance −0.10. Norwich: 15 pts from 10, performance −0.06.
| Bristol City | Opponent | Norwich |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4 A (+1.2) | 1. Southampton | 0-1 H (−1.1) |
| 2-2 A (−0.3) | 4. Birmingham | 2-1 H (−0.7) |
| 0-0 A (−0.3) | 5. Stoke | 0-1 A (+0.9) |
| 2-1 H (−1.2) | 9. Portsmouth | 0-1 H (−1.3) |
| 0-1 H (−1.1) | 10. Sheffield United | 3-1 A (+2.5) |
| 0-2 H (−2.9) | 13. Millwall | 0-3 A (−1.3) |
| 3-2 A (+2.0) | 17. Bolton | 3-4 H (−0.9) |
| 1-0 H (+0.6) | 20. Watford | 3-2 H (−0.6) |
| 1-1 A (−0.5) | 21. Charlton | 3-1 A (+0.9) |
| 2-1 A (+1.3) | 22. Burnley | 4-1 H (+1.0) |
Bristol City: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Robert Atkinson, Sam Tickle, Gibson Yah, Dominic Ballard, Yu Hirakawa. (confirmed XI)
Norwich: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Pelle Mattsson, José Córdoba, Oscar Schwartau. (confirmed XI)
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Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.
Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.