Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Cardiff 5-4 Burnley

My shortlist

Cardiff the pick at home to Burnley

The model's view

41%

28%

31%

Cardiff win 41% confidence: low

Early prediction: 41% / 28% / 31%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 41%.

Cardiff are 18th with 15 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank 10th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Burnley are 22nd with 10 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank 17th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 9 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 9 sides both have played: Cardiff took 10 points from 9 games, Burnley 10 from 9; on performance there was little between them.
In their favour: Cardiff take 1.9 points a game at home.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Burnley have gone 5 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 18 · performance rank 10 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.07 overall, 1.86 at home, 0.29 away. Points v an average side: −4.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Blackburn (A)	1-2	−1.33
13 Oct	Watford (H)	5-1	+1.65
17 Oct	Middlesbrough (A)	2-2	−1.18
24 Oct	Birmingham (H)	1-0	+1.93
31 Oct	Wolves (A)	0-3	−0.19
4 Nov	West Ham (H)	3-3	−0.97

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 22 · performance rank 17 Better than it looks

Points per game: 0.71 overall, 0.71 at home, 0.71 away. Points v an average side: −8.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Watford (A)	4-0	+1.23
13 Oct	Charlton (H)	2-2	−1.60
16 Oct	Wolves (H)	1-2	−0.72
24 Oct	Lincoln (A)	1-4	+0.39
31 Oct	Portsmouth (H)	0-0	+1.34
3 Nov	QPR (A)	1-1	−1.38

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Cardiff: 10 pts from 9, performance −0.34. Burnley: 10 pts from 9, performance −0.18.

Cardiff: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Gabriel Osho, Joel Colwill. (confirmed XI)

Burnley: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Jacob Bruun Larsen, Anel Ahmedhodžić, Max Alleyne. (confirmed XI)