Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Charlton 2-1 Sheffield United

My shortlist

Sheffield United the pick away at Charlton

The model's view

28%

44%

Sheffield United win 44% confidence: low

Early prediction: 28% / 28% / 44%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 28%.

Charlton are 21st with 14 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Sheffield United are 10th with 22 points from 14 games. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Charlton took 8 points from 8 games, Sheffield United 11 from 8; on performance Sheffield United were 0.7 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Charlton have gone 11 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 21 · performance rank 19 As it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 1.29 at home, 0.71 away. Points v an average side: −5.5.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Bristol City (H)	1-1	+0.04
13 Oct	Burnley (A)	2-2	+1.46
17 Oct	Watford (A)	0-2	−1.73
24 Oct	Norwich (H)	1-3	−1.26
31 Oct	Middlesbrough (A)	0-3	−0.45
3 Nov	Bolton (H)	0-1	−0.51

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 10 · performance rank 14 As it looks

Points per game: 1.57 overall, 1.57 at home, 1.57 away. Points v an average side: +1.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Lincoln (H)	3-0	−0.92
14 Oct	Portsmouth (A)	2-3	−0.11
17 Oct	Bristol City (A)	1-0	+0.91
24 Oct	Derby (H)	1-1	+1.36
30 Oct	Wrexham (H)	1-0	+0.23
3 Nov	Preston (A)	3-2	+0.77

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Charlton: 8 pts from 8, performance −0.67. Sheffield United: 11 pts from 8, performance +0.03.

Charlton: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Oliver Skipp, Karlan Grant, Lloyd Jones, Arthur Okonkwo, Miles Leaburn. (confirmed XI)

Sheffield United: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Patrick Bamford, Thomas Cannon, Oliver Arblaster. (confirmed XI)