Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 12:30 Logged before kick-off

Portsmouth 1-2 Stoke

My shortlist

Portsmouth the pick at home to Stoke

The model's view

48%

27%

25%

Portsmouth win 48% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 48% / 27% / 25%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 25%.

Portsmouth are 9th with 22 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank only 15th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Stoke are 5th with 26 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank only 18th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Against the 10 sides both have played: Portsmouth took 15 points from 10 games, Stoke 17 from 10; on performance Portsmouth were 0.8 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Portsmouth are unbeaten in 6. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 9 · performance rank 15 Flattered

Points per game: 1.57 overall, 1.86 at home, 1.29 away. Points v an average side: +2.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
14 Oct	Sheffield United (H)	3-2	−0.08
17 Oct	Norwich (A)	1-0	+1.29
20 Oct	Wolves (A)	1-1	+0.38
24 Oct	Millwall (H)	2-1	−0.17
31 Oct	Burnley (A)	0-0	−1.34
3 Nov	Swansea (H)	3-1	−1.03

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 5 · performance rank 18 Flattered

Points per game: 1.86 overall, 1.86 at home, 1.86 away. Points v an average side: +6.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Bolton (A)	2-1	−2.30
13 Oct	Middlesbrough (H)	2-3	−1.76
17 Oct	Derby (A)	1-0	−0.35
24 Oct	Bristol City (H)	0-0	−0.01
31 Oct	Preston (H)	2-0	+1.40
3 Nov	Blackburn (A)	2-1	−0.57

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Portsmouth: 15 pts from 10, performance +0.23. Stoke: 17 pts from 10, performance −0.58.

Portsmouth: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Zak Swanson, Iyad Mohamed, Ryan Kavuma-McQueen. (confirmed XI)

Stoke: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Maksym Talovierov, Eric Bocat, Justin Devenny, Lamine Cissé. (confirmed XI)