Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Preston 1-0 Southampton

My shortlist

Southampton the pick away at Preston

The model's view

17%

23%

59%

Southampton win 59% confidence: medium Shortlist

Early prediction: 17% / 23% / 59%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 17%.

Preston are 24th with 5 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 15 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.1 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Southampton are 1st with 28 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank only 8th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 9 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Against the 10 sides both have played: Preston took 2 points from 10 games, Southampton 16 from 10; on performance Southampton were 0.8 goals a game better.
The caution: Southampton take 1.3 points a game away, against 2.0 overall.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Preston have gone 9 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
Southampton are unbeaten in 6. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 24 · performance rank 21 As it looks

Points per game: 0.36 overall, 0.57 at home, 0.14 away. Points v an average side: −14.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Millwall (H)	0-1	−0.52
13 Oct	Birmingham (A)	0-4	−1.37
17 Oct	Wrexham (A)	1-4	−0.68
24 Oct	West Brom (H)	1-1	−0.46
31 Oct	Stoke (A)	0-2	−2.10
3 Nov	Sheffield United (H)	2-3	−1.35

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 1 · performance rank 8 Flattered

Points per game: 2.00 overall, 2.71 at home, 1.29 away. Points v an average side: +9.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
11 Oct	Portsmouth (H)	1-0	−0.32
14 Oct	Norwich (A)	1-0	+1.69
17 Oct	Bolton (H)	0-0	+0.24
24 Oct	West Ham (A)	3-2	+1.12
31 Oct	QPR (H)	4-1	+0.22
3 Nov	West Brom (A)	1-1	−0.79

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Preston: 2 pts from 10, performance −0.52. Southampton: 16 pts from 10, performance +0.31.

Preston: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Daniel Iversen, Jordan Storey, Leo Leroy, Harry Clarke, Johnny Kenny. (confirmed XI)

Southampton: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Cyle Larin, Ryan Manning. (confirmed XI)