Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

QPR 2-1 Lincoln

My shortlist

QPR the pick at home to Lincoln

The model's view

46%

28%

26%

QPR win 46% confidence: medium ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 46% / 28% / 26%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 46%.

QPR are 11th with 21 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank 4th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 2 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.0 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Lincoln are 19th with 15 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 10 sides both have played: QPR took 13 points from 10 games, Lincoln 11 from 10; on performance QPR were 0.8 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 11 · performance rank 4 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.50 overall, 1.71 at home, 1.29 away. Points v an average side: +2.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
9 Oct	West Ham (A)	1-1	+0.63
14 Oct	Derby (H)	4-1	+0.24
17 Oct	Birmingham (A)	0-3	+0.26
24 Oct	Swansea (H)	5-0	+3.35
31 Oct	Southampton (A)	1-4	+0.17
3 Nov	Burnley (H)	1-1	+1.44

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 19 · performance rank 16 As it looks

Points per game: 1.07 overall, 0.71 at home, 1.43 away. Points v an average side: −3.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Sheffield United (A)	0-3	+0.86
14 Oct	West Ham (H)	0-6	−2.43
17 Oct	Millwall (A)	2-2	−0.42
24 Oct	Burnley (H)	4-1	−0.44
31 Oct	Birmingham (H)	1-3	−0.51
3 Nov	Watford (A)	0-1	+0.01

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

QPR: 13 pts from 10, performance +0.66. Lincoln: 11 pts from 10, performance −0.10.

QPR: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Nicolas Madsen, Jake Clarke-Salter, Rayan Kolli. (confirmed XI)

Lincoln: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Ben House, Tom Bayliss, Ryley Towler, Andrei Coubiș. (confirmed XI)