Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Watford 0-0 Middlesbrough

My shortlist

Middlesbrough the pick away at Watford

The model's view

21%

25%

54%

Middlesbrough win 54% confidence: medium

Early prediction: 21% / 25% / 54%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 25%.

Watford are 20th with 14 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Middlesbrough are 2nd with 28 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 9 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.3 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 9 sides both have played: Watford took 7 points from 9 games, Middlesbrough 20 from 9; on performance Middlesbrough were 1.6 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 20 · performance rank 22 As it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 1.86 at home, 0.14 away. Points v an average side: −4.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Burnley (H)	0-4	−1.41
13 Oct	Cardiff (A)	1-5	−2.01
17 Oct	Charlton (H)	2-0	+0.99
24 Oct	Wolves (A)	0-1	−1.30
31 Oct	Norwich (A)	2-3	+0.36
3 Nov	Lincoln (H)	1-0	−0.50

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 2 · performance rank 1 As it looks

Points per game: 2.00 overall, 2.43 at home, 1.57 away. Points v an average side: +9.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Wolves (H)	1-0	+0.40
13 Oct	Stoke (A)	3-2	+1.96
17 Oct	Cardiff (H)	2-2	+1.65
23 Oct	Bolton (A)	5-1	+3.43
31 Oct	Charlton (H)	3-0	+0.69
4 Nov	Wrexham (A)	0-2	−0.39

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Watford: 7 pts from 9, performance −0.69. Middlesbrough: 20 pts from 9, performance +0.92.

Watford: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Omar Haktab Traore, Hector Kyprianou, Luca Kjerrumgaard. (confirmed XI)

Middlesbrough: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Neto Borges, Luke Ayling, Tommy Conway, Will Lankshear. (confirmed XI)