Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

West Brom 3-0 Millwall

My shortlist

West Brom the pick at home to Millwall

The model's view

42%

28%

30%

West Brom win 42% confidence: low

Early prediction: 42% / 28% / 30%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 42%.

West Brom are 7th with 25 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 7 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 0.9 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Millwall are 13th with 18 points from 14 games, but on performances they rank 5th: better than the table suggests. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Against the 9 sides both have played: West Brom took 17 points from 9 games, Millwall 11 from 9; on performance there was little between them.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 7 · performance rank 6 As it looks

Points per game: 1.79 overall, 1.71 at home, 1.86 away. Points v an average side: +6.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Birmingham (H)	0-1	−1.62
13 Oct	Wrexham (A)	2-1	+0.69
17 Oct	Blackburn (H)	3-2	+3.01
24 Oct	Preston (A)	1-1	+0.01
31 Oct	West Ham (A)	3-1	+2.25
3 Nov	Southampton (H)	1-1	+1.26

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 13 · performance rank 5 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.29 overall, 1.57 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −0.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Preston (A)	1-0	+0.26
13 Oct	Swansea (H)	0-1	−0.92
17 Oct	Lincoln (H)	2-2	+0.43
24 Oct	Portsmouth (A)	1-2	+0.25
31 Oct	Derby (H)	4-1	+1.99
3 Nov	Birmingham (A)	0-3	+0.53

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

West Brom: 17 pts from 9, performance +0.41. Millwall: 11 pts from 9, performance +0.48.

West Brom: Usual strength. Missing regulars: George Campbell, Toby Collyer. (confirmed XI)

Millwall: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Mark Sykes, Lyndon Dykes, Filip Marschall, Tairyk Arconte. (confirmed XI)