Championship · Sat 7 Nov, 12:30 Logged before kick-off

Wrexham 1-1 Wolves

My shortlist

Wolves the pick away at Wrexham

The model's view

31%

28%

41%

Wolves win 41% confidence: low

Early prediction: 31% / 28% / 41%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 28%.

Wrexham are 16th with 17 points from 14 games. Over their last six they have been about average.
Wolves are 3rd with 27 points from 14 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 7 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 10 sides both have played: Wrexham took 9 points from 10 games, Wolves 20 from 10; on performance Wolves were 0.9 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 16 · performance rank 13 As it looks

Points per game: 1.21 overall, 1.57 at home, 0.86 away. Points v an average side: −1.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
10 Oct	Derby (A)	1-1	+0.95
13 Oct	West Brom (H)	1-2	−0.75
17 Oct	Preston (H)	4-1	+0.13
24 Oct	Blackburn (A)	0-2	+0.28
30 Oct	Sheffield United (A)	0-1	−0.39
4 Nov	Middlesbrough (H)	2-0	+0.84

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 3 · performance rank 2 As it looks

Points per game: 1.93 overall, 2.00 at home, 1.86 away. Points v an average side: +7.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Oct	Bolton (H)	1-3	+0.12
16 Oct	Burnley (A)	2-1	+1.21
20 Oct	Portsmouth (H)	1-1	−0.20
24 Oct	Watford (H)	1-0	+1.21
31 Oct	Cardiff (H)	3-0	+0.43
4 Nov	Bristol City (A)	2-1	+1.69

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Wrexham: 9 pts from 10, performance −0.04. Wolves: 20 pts from 10, performance +0.87.

Wrexham: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Callum O'Hare, Zak Vyner, Dominic Hyam. (confirmed XI)

Wolves: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Kieran Trippier, Jean-Ricner Bellegarde, Rafiki Saïd, Hugo Bueno. (confirmed XI)