Eredivisie · Sat 7 Nov, 17:45 Logged before kick-off

Den Haag 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam

My shortlist

Sparta Rotterdam the pick away at Den Haag

The model's view

29%

28%

43%

Sparta Rotterdam win 43% confidence: low

Early prediction: 29% / 28% / 43%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 29%.

Den Haag are 17th with 6 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 8 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Sparta Rotterdam are 11th with 12 points from 11 games, but on performances they rank 6th: better than the table suggests. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Against the 7 sides both have played: Den Haag took 5 points from 7 games, Sparta Rotterdam 8 from 7; on performance Sparta Rotterdam were 0.9 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.
Warning: Sparta Rotterdam, smash-and-grab last win (3-2 v Groningen, despite creating less).
▼ Sparta Rotterdam: smash-and-grab last win (3-2 v Groningen, despite creating less) [tested signal]

Position 17 · performance rank 13 As it looks

Points per game: 0.55 overall, 0.80 at home, 0.33 away. Points v an average side: −7.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Twente (A)	0-2	−1.26
19 Sept	Cambuur (H)	1-1	−0.19
11 Oct	Telstar (A)	2-2	−1.44
17 Oct	PSV Eindhoven (H)	2-1	+2.00
24 Oct	Heerenveen (H)	2-3	+0.47
1 Nov	Zwolle (A)	0-1	−1.47

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 11 · performance rank 6 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.09 overall, 0.83 at home, 1.40 away. Points v an average side: −1.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	PSV Eindhoven (A)	1-4	+1.45
19 Sept	Heerenveen (H)	0-4	−1.41
10 Oct	Go Ahead Eagles (A)	3-3	+1.63
17 Oct	Willem II (H)	3-2	+0.82
25 Oct	Ajax (H)	1-2	+0.64
1 Nov	Groningen (A)	3-2	+0.99

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Den Haag: 5 pts from 7, performance −0.47. Sparta Rotterdam: 8 pts from 7, performance +0.38.

Den Haag: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Jonas Jensen-Abbew, Yannick Eduardo. (confirmed XI)

Sparta Rotterdam: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Julian Baas, Nick Verschuren, Robin van Cruijsen. (confirmed XI)