Eredivisie · Sat 7 Nov, 20:00 Logged before kick-off

Excelsior 0-1 Go Ahead Eagles

My shortlist

Excelsior v Go Ahead Eagles: too close to call

The model's view

35%

28%

37%

Go Ahead Eagles win 37% confidence: coin flip

Early prediction: 35% / 28% / 37%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 37%.

Excelsior are 15th with 11 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.5 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Go Ahead Eagles are 10th with 14 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been about average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Excelsior took 10 points from 6 games, Go Ahead Eagles 7 from 6; on performance there was little between them.
The caution: Go Ahead Eagles take 0.5 points a game away, against 1.3 overall.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Excelsior have gone 7 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 15 · performance rank 17 As it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 0.60 at home, 1.33 away. Points v an average side: −3.1.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Utrecht (H)	1-2	−1.05
19 Sept	Ajax (A)	2-2	−0.07
11 Oct	Groningen (H)	1-5	−1.19
16 Oct	Heerenveen (A)	0-4	−1.19
25 Oct	For Sittard (A)	0-1	+0.28
1 Nov	Twente (H)	0-9	−5.88

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 10 · performance rank 10 As it looks

Points per game: 1.27 overall, 2.20 at home, 0.50 away. Points v an average side: −2.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Groningen (H)	1-1	+1.73
20 Sept	Nijmegen (A)	1-1	+2.24
10 Oct	Sparta Rotterdam (H)	3-3	−1.97
18 Oct	Zwolle (A)	1-4	+0.14
23 Oct	Telstar (H)	3-2	−0.54
31 Oct	Cambuur (A)	0-4	−1.55

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Excelsior: 10 pts from 6, performance +0.11. Go Ahead Eagles: 7 pts from 6, performance +0.03.

Excelsior: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Simon Janssen, David Garden, Eric da Silva Moreira. (confirmed XI)

Go Ahead Eagles: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Evert Linthorst, Kjetil Haug, Victor Edvardsen, Dean James. (confirmed XI)