Eredivisie · Sat 7 Nov, 15:30 Logged before kick-off

For Sittard 2-2 Telstar

My shortlist

For Sittard the pick at home to Telstar

The model's view

43%

28%

29%

For Sittard win 43% confidence: low

Early prediction: 43% / 28% / 29%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 28%.

For Sittard are 6th with 19 points from 11 games, but on performances they rank only 18th: the results are flattering them. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.0 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Telstar are 16th with 9 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 7 sides both have played: For Sittard took 9 points from 7 games, Telstar 5 from 7; on performance Telstar were 1.0 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 6 · performance rank 18 Flattered

Points per game: 1.73 overall, 1.40 at home, 2.00 away. Points v an average side: +4.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Ajax (H)	1-5	−2.98
19 Sept	Willem II (A)	1-0	−0.50
10 Oct	Twente (H)	1-1	+0.06
18 Oct	Nijmegen (A)	2-2	−2.07
25 Oct	Excelsior (H)	1-0	−0.90
31 Oct	Feyenoord (A)	1-1	+0.13

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 16 · performance rank 14 As it looks

Points per game: 0.82 overall, 0.83 at home, 0.80 away. Points v an average side: −5.9.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Heerenveen (A)	0-0	−0.55
20 Sept	AZ Alkmaar (A)	0-1	−1.56
11 Oct	Den Haag (H)	2-2	−0.08
17 Oct	Feyenoord (H)	3-4	−1.43
23 Oct	Go Ahead Eagles (A)	2-3	+0.25
1 Nov	Utrecht (H)	4-2	+0.89

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

For Sittard: 9 pts from 7, performance −1.70. Telstar: 5 pts from 7, performance −0.75.

For Sittard: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Ole Romeny, Rodrigo Guth, Édouard Michut, Lequincio Zeefuik. (confirmed XI)

Telstar: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Jeff Hardeveld, Rui Mendes, Gerald Alders. (confirmed XI)