La Liga · Sat 7 Nov, 15:15 Logged before kick-off

Espanol 0-0 La Coruna

My shortlist

Espanol the pick at home to La Coruna

The model's view

45%

28%

27%

Espanol win 45% confidence: low

Early prediction: 45% / 28% / 27%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 28%.

Espanol are 14th with 11 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average.
La Coruna are 8th with 14 points from 11 games. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Against the 8 sides both have played: Espanol took 11 points from 8 games, La Coruna 9 from 8; on performance there was little between them.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 14 · performance rank 15 As it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 0.80 at home, 1.17 away. Points v an average side: −3.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
15 Sept	Vallecano (A)	1-2	+0.46
18 Sept	Elche (H)	1-3	−1.05
9 Oct	Malaga (A)	1-1	+0.16
17 Oct	Ath Madrid (H)	0-1	−0.71
24 Oct	Santander (A)	1-2	−2.35
30 Oct	Villarreal (A)	1-0	+0.15

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 8 · performance rank 6 As it looks

Points per game: 1.27 overall, 1.50 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −1.7.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
16 Sept	Sevilla (H)	0-1	−1.00
20 Sept	Betis (H)	1-1	+1.21
11 Oct	Sociedad (A)	2-3	+0.99
16 Oct	Levante (H)	1-1	−0.33
24 Oct	Ath Madrid (A)	0-1	+1.37
2 Nov	Osasuna (H)	2-1	+0.66

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Espanol: 11 pts from 8, performance −0.03. La Coruna: 9 pts from 8, performance −0.04.

Espanol: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Marko Dmitrović, Bryan Zaragoza, Javier Hernández, Roger Hinojo. (confirmed XI)

La Coruna: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Ximo Navarro, Riki Rodríguez, Diego Villares, Bright Ede. (confirmed XI)