La Liga · Sat 7 Nov, 13:00 Logged before kick-off

Malaga 1-2 Santander

My shortlist

Malaga the pick at home to Santander

The model's view

51%

27%

22%

Malaga win 51% confidence: medium Shortlist

Early prediction: 51% / 27% / 22%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 22%.

Malaga are 20th with 5 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 9 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.1 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Santander are 16th with 11 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average, about 1.5 goals a game worse than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Malaga took 3 points from 6 games, Santander 7 from 6; on performance Santander were 1.0 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Malaga have gone 11 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 20 · performance rank 19 As it looks

Points per game: 0.46 overall, 0.60 at home, 0.33 away. Points v an average side: −9.4.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
17 Sept	Villarreal (H)	1-3	−2.79
20 Sept	Getafe (A)	0-1	−0.43
9 Oct	Espanol (H)	1-1	−1.03
18 Oct	Sociedad (H)	2-5	−1.72
23 Oct	Alaves (A)	1-1	−0.76
31 Oct	Betis (A)	1-2	−0.02

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 16 · performance rank 20 As it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 1.83 at home, 0.00 away. Points v an average side: −3.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
16 Sept	Barcelona (A)	2-7	−2.88
19 Sept	Celta (A)	0-5	−1.15
11 Oct	Valencia (H)	2-2	−1.10
18 Oct	Osasuna (A)	0-2	−3.21
24 Oct	Espanol (H)	2-1	+1.07
1 Nov	Real Madrid (H)	0-3	−1.70

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Malaga: 3 pts from 6, performance −1.07. Santander: 7 pts from 6, performance −0.08.

Malaga: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Pablo Martínez, Jose Salinas, Carlos Puga, David Larrubia, Ángel Recio. (confirmed XI)

Santander: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Alvaro Mantilla. (confirmed XI)