La Liga · Sat 7 Nov, 17:30 Logged before kick-off

Osasuna 1-1 Ath Bilbao

My shortlist

Osasuna v Ath Bilbao: too close to call

The model's view

36%

29%

34%

Osasuna win 36% confidence: coin flip

Early prediction: 36% / 29% / 34%; line-ups didn't change it.

✗ The pick didn't come off. The model gave the result 29%.

Osasuna are 15th with 11 points from 11 games, but on performances they rank 9th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well below average.
Ath Bilbao are 7th with 15 points from 10 games. Over their last six they have been a little better than average.
Against the 6 sides both have played: Osasuna took 7 points from 6 games, Ath Bilbao 10 from 6; on performance Ath Bilbao were 0.7 goals a game better.
In their favour: Osasuna take 1.6 points a game at home.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Position 15 · performance rank 9 Better than it looks

Points per game: 1.00 overall, 1.60 at home, 0.50 away. Points v an average side: −4.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
16 Sept	Ath Madrid (A)	0-4	−2.69
19 Sept	Vallecano (H)	1-1	−0.79
11 Oct	Betis (A)	2-5	−0.30
18 Oct	Santander (H)	2-0	+2.03
26 Oct	Sevilla (A)	0-2	−0.10
2 Nov	La Coruna (A)	1-2	−1.18

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 7 · performance rank 5 As it looks

Points per game: 1.50 overall, 1.83 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: +0.8.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Elche (H)	1-1	+0.83
19 Sept	Alaves (H)	0-0	+1.28
17 Oct	Valencia (A)	0-0	−0.79
21 Oct	Levante (A)	1-3	+0.16
25 Oct	Getafe (H)	4-0	−0.22
1 Nov	Sociedad (H)	2-1	+1.47

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Osasuna: 7 pts from 6, performance +0.06. Ath Bilbao: 10 pts from 6, performance +0.76.

Osasuna: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Raúl García de Haro, Iker Muñoz, Iñigo Arguibide, Unai Santos. (confirmed XI)

Ath Bilbao: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta, Yeray Álvarez, Oihan Sancet, Jesús Areso, Aitor Paredes. (confirmed XI)