La Liga · Sat 7 Nov, 20:00 Logged before kick-off

Valencia 0-3 Real Madrid

My shortlist

Real Madrid the pick away at Valencia

The model's view

15%

22%

63%

Real Madrid win 63% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 15% / 22% / 63%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 63%.

Valencia are 19th with 9 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 6 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Real Madrid are 3rd with 27 points from 11 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 12 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.4 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Against the 7 sides both have played: Valencia took 4 points from 7 games, Real Madrid 18 from 7; on performance Real Madrid were 2.8 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Real Madrid have won 4 in a row. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 19 · performance rank 16 As it looks

Points per game: 0.82 overall, 0.33 at home, 1.40 away. Points v an average side: −6.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
15 Sept	Alaves (A)	1-0	+0.04
20 Sept	Sociedad (H)	2-3	−1.60
11 Oct	Santander (A)	2-2	−0.12
17 Oct	Ath Bilbao (H)	0-0	+0.55
24 Oct	Villarreal (H)	1-2	−0.33
1 Nov	Elche (A)	1-0	−0.08

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 3 · performance rank 2 As it looks

Points per game: 2.46 overall, 3.00 at home, 2.00 away. Points v an average side: +12.3.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
15 Sept	Elche (A)	3-2	+2.90
20 Sept	Ath Madrid (A)	1-2	−1.09
10 Oct	Villarreal (H)	1-0	+0.85
18 Oct	Sevilla (H)	4-1	+1.11
25 Oct	Barcelona (A)	2-1	+2.88
1 Nov	Santander (A)	3-0	+1.89

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Valencia: 4 pts from 7, performance −0.72. Real Madrid: 18 pts from 7, performance +2.12.

Valencia: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Filip Ugrinić, David Otorbi. (confirmed XI)

Real Madrid: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Trent Alexander-Arnold. (confirmed XI)