Auxerre 0-1 Paris FC

The model's view

Paris FC win 43% confidence: low

Early prediction: 27% / 30% / 43%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 43%.

The story

• Auxerre are 14th with 10 points from 9 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 3 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
• Paris FC are 4th with 17 points from 9 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 5 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
• Against the 5 sides both have played: Auxerre took 3 points from 5 games, Paris FC 10 from 5; on performance Paris FC were 1.7 goals a game better.
• The caution: Paris FC take 1.0 points a game away, against 1.9 overall.
• Both sides at their usual strength.

Worth knowing

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Common opponents

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Team news