Ligue 1 · Sat 7 Nov, 20:05 Logged before kick-off

Paris SG 1-0 Troyes

My shortlist

Paris SG the pick at home to Troyes

The model's view

85%

10%

Paris SG win 85% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: watch

Early prediction: 85% / 10% / 5%; line-ups didn't change it.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 85%.

Paris SG are 1st with 20 points from 9 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 9 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average, about 1.6 goals a game better than an average side would manage in the same fixtures.
Troyes are 16th with 8 points from 9 games, but on performances they rank 11th: better than the table suggests. Given who they have played and where, that is 4 points fewer than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 4 sides both have played: Paris SG took 10 points from 4 games, Troyes 3 from 4; on performance Paris SG were 2.0 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Paris SG have won 6 in a row. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 1 · performance rank 1 As it looks

Points per game: 2.22 overall, 2.00 at home, 2.33 away. Points v an average side: +9.0.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Brest (A)	1-0	−0.01
20 Sept	Marseille (A)	2-1	+3.72
10 Oct	Le Mans (H)	3-1	+2.10
17 Oct	Strasbourg (A)	3-1	+1.51
26 Oct	Lyon (H)	2-0	+0.37
30 Oct	Le Havre (A)	5-1	+1.88

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 16 · performance rank 11 Better than it looks

Points per game: 0.89 overall, 0.80 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −4.2.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
13 Sept	Lille (A)	0-2	−0.51
19 Sept	Angers (A)	0-2	−1.68
11 Oct	Marseille (H)	0-2	−0.14
17 Oct	Lens (H)	1-3	+0.09
25 Oct	Toulouse (A)	0-0	−0.12
31 Oct	Le Mans (H)	2-0	+1.03

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Paris SG: 10 pts from 4, performance +2.02. Troyes: 3 pts from 4, performance +0.04.

Paris SG: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Achraf Hakimi, Marquinhos, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Maghnes Akliouche, João Neves. (confirmed XI)

Troyes: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Jérémy Le Douaron, Patrick Beach, Anis Ouzenadji. (confirmed XI)