Premier League · Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 Logged before kick-off

Arsenal 1-0 Hull

My shortlist

Arsenal the pick at home to Hull

The model's view

86%

Arsenal win 86% confidence: high ShortlistLine-ups: stays

Early prediction: 88% / 8% / 4%; re-priced when the line-ups came out.

✓ The pick came off. The model gave the result 86%.

Arsenal are 1st with 24 points from 9 games. Given who they have played and where, that is 12 points more than an average side would have taken. Over their last six they have been well above average.
Hull are 11th with 11 points from 9 games, but on performances they rank only 16th: the results are flattering them. Over their last six they have been a little worse than average.
Against the 4 sides both have played: Arsenal took 12 points from 4 games, Hull 6 from 4; on performance Arsenal were 1.7 goals a game better.
Both sides at their usual strength.

Patterns in how these teams' games go. Each states its sample; none of it changes the model's numbers.

Arsenal have won 4 in a row. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.
Hull have gone 7 without a win. Runs like this are already in the ratings: since 2012 teams on long runs have won about as often as the model expected.

Position 1 · performance rank 2 As it looks

Points per game: 2.67 overall, 3.00 at home, 2.40 away. Points v an average side: +11.8.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Sunderland (A)	2-0	−0.05
19 Sept	Brighton (A)	0-3	+0.78
10 Oct	Leeds (H)	2-1	+1.61
18 Oct	Nott'm Forest (A)	1-0	+0.39
24 Oct	Everton (H)	2-0	+1.12
1 Nov	Liverpool (A)	1-0	+0.41

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Position 11 · performance rank 16 Flattered

Points per game: 1.22 overall, 1.40 at home, 1.00 away. Points v an average side: −1.6.

Date	Opponent	Score	Perf.
12 Sept	Chelsea (A)	2-2	+0.75
19 Sept	Newcastle (A)	1-2	+0.39
11 Oct	Everton (H)	2-2	−0.51
17 Oct	Fulham (A)	0-1	−1.15
25 Oct	Brentford (H)	1-1	−0.30
31 Oct	Ipswich (H)	2-2	−0.85

Perf.: how much better (+, green) or worse (−, orange) than an average side in the same fixture, in goals. Darker means a bigger gap.

Both sides' results against teams they have both played this season, with our performance number for each game.

Arsenal: 12 pts from 4, performance +1.16. Hull: 6 pts from 4, performance −0.51.

Arsenal: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Bukayo Saka, Ben White, Myles Lewis-Skelly. (confirmed XI)

Hull: Usual strength. Missing regulars: Sorba Thomas, Ryan Giles, Matt Crooks, Mohamed Belloumi, Lucas Herrington. (confirmed XI)